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Feb 17
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SHORT
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@ReutersBiz
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Luxury companies like LVMH and Kering are struggling with a two-year slowdown and increased share price volatility, suggesting potential downside. |
@ReutersBiz
As luxury companies like LVMH and Gucci-owner...
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Feb 15
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LONG
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Narrator
Reporter/Host
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2026 is the Year of the Horse. The narrator notes that "it's easier to market the horse" for Western houses that already feature them in logos or motifs, explicitly naming "Gucci, Celine [LVMH], Longchamp and of course, Hermes [RMS]." Chinese consumers are demanding "fresher takes" and cultural authenticity, rejecting lazy marketing (e.g., just a "red handbag with a horse on it"). Brands with inherent equine DNA (Hermes, Celine) can leverage this year's zodiac animal organically, giving them a competitive edge in capturing the projected rebound in holiday spending. Long LVMH (parent of Celine) and RMS (Hermes) as the primary beneficiaries of the Year of the Horse marketing cycle. Continued "economic slowdown" in China and a structural shift where consumers are "more inclined to support domestic labels" could cap upside for Western brands. |
CNBC
Why Chinese New Year is so important for luxu...
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Narrator
Financial Reporter
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The speaker states that "2026 is the year of the horse" and "it's easier to market the horse than last year's zodiac animal... Western luxury houses already feature them... like Gucci, Celine [LVMH], Longchamp and of course, Hermes [RMS]." Brands with inherent equestrian branding (Hermes, Celine via LVMH) have a distinct competitive advantage in 2026 marketing campaigns. This allows them to authentically connect with Chinese consumers and capture the projected market rebound more effectively than competitors who must manufacture a connection to the zodiac animal. LONG these specific luxury houses as they are best positioned to capitalize on the Lunar New Year spending catalyst. Continued macroeconomic weakness in China (housing crisis, unemployment) and a structural shift in consumer preference toward domestic Chinese brands. |
CNBC
How Lunar New Year could help China's luxury ...
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Luigi de Vecchi
Chairman, Capital Markets, Citigroup EMEA
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De Vecchi observes that while traditional Milanese are reserved ("drive a Fiat 500, not a Ferrari"), the influx of wealthy foreigners is "sometimes flashy" and prone to showing off. The demographic shift from understated local wealth to ostentatious expat wealth creates a new, high-velocity local market for luxury goods. The "flashy" new residents are the exact target demographic for Ferrari and high-end fashion houses. LONG. Milan's transformation into a cosmopolitan "playground" directly benefits luxury conglomerates. Local backlash against gentrification or "flashy" displays of wealth leading to regulatory crackdowns. |
Bloomberg Markets
Why The Ultra Rich Are Moving to Milan
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Feb 14
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LONG
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Luigi de Vecchi
Chairman, Capital Markets, Citigroup EMEA
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Milan is attracting wealthy expats due to a flat tax regime and the 2026 Winter Olympics. Real estate is up 38%. Financial firms like Goldman Sachs and Citi (implied via "financial institutions have expanded") are moving personnel there. The influx of high-net-worth individuals drives consumption of luxury goods and high-end services. Ferrari (RACE) and LVMH benefit from the concentration of wealth in Europe. Global banks (GS/C) benefit from the M&A boom and wealth management needs in the region. LONG beneficiaries of the "Milan Boom" (Luxury and Global Banks). Reversal of the Italian flat tax regime in upcoming elections. |
Bloomberg Markets
Wall Street Week | Rattner on Manufacturing, ...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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Dave Magers
CEO of Mecum Auctions
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Mecum sold $460 million in cars in January. The CEO states that for "monumentally significant" cars, payment was received "pretty much immediately," indicating ample liquidity among buyers. The "Wealth Effect" is clearly active. If high-net-worth individuals are deploying hundreds of millions into vintage cars with immediate cash settlement, the consumer at the very top of the pyramid is healthy. This spending power spills over into other heritage luxury goods (handbags, watches, fashion). LONG. Bullish signal for top-tier luxury conglomerates catering to the ultra-wealthy. Wealth taxes or significant changes in capital gains tax structures could dampen demand for luxury collectibles. |
Bloomberg Markets
Ferrari's Flying Off the Auction Block for Mi...
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Deborah Aitken
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
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"Why it [Hermès] stands out versus its peers, its premium valuation is because that helps it absolutely to not only manage margin but to grow margins." The analyst explicitly differentiates Hermès from "its peers," citing its unique vertical integration and pricing power as reasons for its premium. By inference, peers (like LVMH) who are less vertically integrated or have less pricing power on "aspirational" luxury goods are more vulnerable to the "global tariff environment" and margin compression. AVOID. Prefer Hermès (RMS) over broad luxury peers (LVMH) as a quality flight. A broad recovery in Chinese consumer demand could lift the entire sector, causing LVMH (which has higher beta) to outperform defensive plays like Hermès. |
Bloomberg Markets
Hermès Sales Surprise on Robust Birkin Bag De...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Deborah Aitken
Senior Analyst, Bloomberg Intelligence
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Hermes sales grew 10% with 5-6% price hikes, while peers struggle. In a tough consumer environment, "Ultra-Luxury" (Heritage/Scarcity) diverges from "Aspirational Luxury." High-net-worth spending remains resilient, and heritage brands have pricing power that protects margins against inflation/tariffs. Long top-tier Luxury (Hermes/LVMH) vs. mid-tier. China slowdown impacting luxury demand. |
Bloomberg Markets
Nuveen to Buy Schroders in £10B Deal | The Pu...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Anthony Capuano
CEO, Marriott International
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"The K-shaped economy is certainly impacting the travel vertical... Luxury was a real highlight." Capuano confirms that the top 10% of consumers are insulated from macro headwinds. If Marriott's luxury tier is up 6% while general US RevPAR is down/flat, this strength likely correlates to other high-end travel and luxury goods exposure. This reads positively for Hyatt (higher luxury mix) and luxury conglomerates like LVMH. Long the "High-End Consumer" basket via luxury hospitality and goods. Wealth effect reversal if asset prices (stocks/housing) decline significantly. |
CNBC
Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano: The K-shaped ec...
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