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Feb 18
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SHORT
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Unknown Speaker
Financial Commentator/Analyst
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The speaker notes Toll Brothers is "suffering" with "quarterly orders missing expectations" and that aggressive incentives to lure buyers are "weighing on margins." High prices and 6% mortgage rates have hit a breaking point, even for the luxury demographic. If builders must subsidize rates (buy-downs) and give away freebies just to sign fewer contracts than expected, profitability is being squeezed from both the top line (volume) and bottom line (margin). This signals a sector-wide deterioration in earnings quality. SHORT. The "luxury" defense has failed, and margin compression is now the dominant narrative for the group. A rapid decline in the 10-year Treasury yield could quickly lower mortgage rates, reigniting demand before earnings deteriorate further. |
Bloomberg Markets
Toll Brothers Signs Fewer Contracts Than Expe...
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Feb 17
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WATCH
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Austan Goolsbee
President, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
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"We've seen progress on the shelter side. But there's little statistical pollution still going through that." Shelter is the largest component of inflation. If the "progress" Goolsbee sees continues, it unlocks the rate cuts mentioned above. Lower rates are the primary catalyst for homebuilder valuations and mortgage demand. WATCH. Wait for confirmation that shelter inflation is actually clearing the "statistical pollution" before aggressively adding exposure. Services inflation (which includes housing services) remains "not tamed," keeping mortgage rates high. |
CNBC
Chicago Fed President Goolsbee: Several more ...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Ryan Serhant
Founder and CEO of Serhant Real Estate
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"I think supply needs to meaningfully increase... It's not a housing crisis. I think that's a solid headline. I think it's a housing stalemate." Serhant identifies that existing homeowners are "locked in" and not selling ("punishes mobility"). Therefore, the *only* source of inventory to break the stalemate and meet demand is new construction. Large builders face less competition from the resale market than ever before. LONG. The "stalemate" in resale is a monopoly for new construction. Interest rates rising further could crush affordability to the point where even new builds cannot sell. |
CNBC
Housing not in crisis but first-time buyers a...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
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"The regional banks... are not lending today to the regional builders. So, the regional builders are somewhat paralyzed... The top 20 home builders, they don't need regional banks, right? They got their own balance sheet." A credit crunch at the regional bank level specifically hurts small, private competitors. Large public builders (DR Horton, Lennar, Pulte) have access to capital markets (corporate bonds/stock) and cash. They will absorb the market share of the paralyzed private builders who cannot get construction loans. Long the large incumbents who can build through the credit cycle. If interest rates stay historically high for too long, demand destruction could eventually hit the large builders despite their supply-side advantage. |
CNBC
Squawk Pod: Kalshi CEO on Super Bowl wins & N...
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Feb 10
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AVOID
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Senator Coons
Senator
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Senator Coons cites tariffs on lumber, drywall, and cabinets raising the cost of a new home by "$17,000." Lutnick responds that to have domestic industry, "you have to protect furniture makers." The administration is prioritizing protectionist tariffs over lowering construction costs. This creates a margin squeeze for homebuilders who face higher input costs but may not be able to pass them on to consumers already stretched by rates/prices. AVOID Homebuilders due to persistent input cost inflation driven by trade policy. Housing shortage demand overwhelms cost concerns. |
CNBC
Commerce Sec. Lutnick testifies before lawmak...
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Feb 10
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LONG
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Scott Rechler
Chairman & CEO, RXR (Real Estate Developer / Fed Board Director)
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Rechler states there is a "supply gap" of 4-7 million homes, but "regional banks... are not lending today to the regional builders." Homebuilding is capital intensive. Small, private builders rely almost exclusively on regional bank construction loans. If that capital spigot is turned off, small builders cannot build. Large public builders (D.R. Horton, Lennar) do not rely on regional banks; they have investment-grade balance sheets and access to public debt markets. Therefore, the "broken" regional banking system forces market share consolidation into the hands of the large public builders. Long large-cap builders as they are the only ones capable of bridging the supply gap in a credit-constrained environment. A severe recession that crushes overall housing demand regardless of supply constraints; persistent high rates locking up buyers. |
CNBC
RXR CEO Scott Rechler on housing affordabilit...
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