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Feb 18
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LONG
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Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
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Japanese bond yields are hitting records, and inflation is rising, yet the stock market is surging. Contrary to the fear that rising rates will break Japan, this signals the end of financial repression. The economy is normalizing, allowing for inflation and growth, which is driving equity performance (outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 5 years). Bullish on the structural changes in the Japanese economy. A rapid spike in yields could cause short-term volatility or currency instability. |
The Compound News
Is AI a Mistake? | Animal Spirits 452
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Feb 17
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LONG
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Adam
Market Strategist / Guest
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"I think there's definitely a bullish case to be made for Japan. You kind of see that in the post-election reaction to equity markets." The market views the new government (Takeuchi/Ishiba context) and potential stimulus as a stabilizing force, encouraging capital flows into Japanese stocks. LONG Japan as a post-election momentum play. Fiscal discipline concerns or currency volatility. |
Bloomberg Markets
UK Jobs Data Gives Green Light to March BOE C...
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Feb 13
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LONG
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The US market has underperformed and turned negative for the year, whereas Asian markets are up over 10%. The speaker notes Asia is "at the top of the supply chain" for infrastructure, equipment, and chips (specifically TSMC, Korean memory makers, and Japanese firms). Capital is rotating from US software/tech into Asian hardware/semiconductors because these regions control the physical constraints of the AI boom (chips/memory) and are offering better relative performance than the S&P 500. LONG Asian hardware and indices as the "rest of the world" trade outperforms the US. A global recession dampening demand for semiconductors or geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait. |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
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Feb 12
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LONG
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Joseph Amato
Neuberger Berman
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Japan has shifted from a deflationary to an inflationary regime, combined with a push for better shareholder returns (ROEs). This structural shift makes Japan a distinct growth story separate from US Tech. It offers diversification with improving corporate fundamentals. LONG Japan for structural reflation and governance reform. JPY currency volatility impacting unhedged returns. |
Bloomberg Markets
Bloomberg Surveillance 2/12/2026
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Feb 12
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AVOID
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Peter Navarro
Senior Counsel on Trade and Manufacturing (Trump Adviser)
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"Every country that we trade with is like fingerprints... they cheat us in their own way... India... Japan... China... [Trump] goes country by country... and he sets the tariffs according to how badly they're cheating us." The confirmation of a "bespoke" (highly specific and likely punitive) tariff regime introduces significant uncertainty for export-driven economies. Japan (non-tariff barriers) and China (mixed barriers) are explicitly named as targets, suggesting their exporters face imminent margin compression or volume loss. Avoid markets heavily reliant on US exports until specific tariff schedules are announced. Diplomatic negotiations could result in exemptions or softer deals than implied by the hardline rhetoric. |
Bloomberg Markets
Navarro says it's "criminal" how much Jamie D...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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Rahm Alawalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital
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Rahm states, "You should own Japan... Japan in the last 12 months is up 40%... The JP Morgan of Japan [MUFG] is up 57%." He notes corporate governance reforms are working. As capital leaks out of the crowded US Mag 7 trade, it seeks value and performance. Japan offers structural growth (governance reform) and value valuations compared to US tech. Long Japan as a beneficiary of the global rotation into value and international markets. Currency volatility (Yen) or a reversal in corporate governance reforms. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Would BlackRock Try to Save Bitcoin From the ...
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Feb 11
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LONG
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While Europe is mixed, the speaker notes "positive surprises in Asian regions, Japan in particular." The combination of "political clarity" regarding economic policy and positive earnings surprises creates a "good omen for continued earnings trends going up" in Japan. LONG. Currency fluctuations (JPY volatility) affecting export earnings. |
Bloomberg Markets
Software Selloff Is a Chance to Increase Expo...
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