Would BlackRock Try to Save Bitcoin From the Quantum Threat? - Bits + Bips
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 11, 2026 at 21:38 UTC  |  1:05:57  |  Unchained (Chopping Block)
Speakers
Austin Campbell — Host, Zero Knowledge Consulting
Rahm Alawalia — CEO, LuminArx Capital
Chris Perkins — President, CoinFund
Nick Carter — General Partner, Castle Island Ventures

Summary

  • The "Token Era" of crypto is effectively over; the market is shifting from VC-backed L1 tokens to "boring" cash-flow businesses, stablecoins, and tokenized real assets.
  • A "Revenge of Warren Buffett" rotation is underway, moving capital from crowded Mag 7/Growth trades into Value, Physical Assets, and International Equities (specifically Japan).
  • Quantum computing represents a material 2-3 order of magnitude threat to Bitcoin within the decade; however, BlackRock and institutions will likely force a "corporate takeover" of development to fix it if open-source devs fail to act.
  • AI Model layers (OpenAI) are viewed as "capital incinerators" with bad debt (RPOs), while value accrues to the infrastructure layer (Data Centers/Hardware).
  • Derivatives markets are eating spot markets in crypto, posing a specific threat to Solana's dominance if it cannot capture the derivatives volume currently flowing to Hyperliquid.
Trade Ideas
Ticker Direction Speaker Thesis Time
LONG Rahm Alawalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital
Rahm states, "You should own Japan... Japan in the last 12 months is up 40%... The JP Morgan of Japan [MUFG] is up 57%." He notes corporate governance reforms are working. As capital leaks out of the crowded US Mag 7 trade, it seeks value and performance. Japan offers structural growth (governance reform) and value valuations compared to US tech. Long Japan as a beneficiary of the global rotation into value and international markets. Currency volatility (Yen) or a reversal in corporate governance reforms.
LONG Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures
Nick states, "I am not worried in the slightest about 600 billion of capex... I think this is bigger than the industrial revolution." He explicitly prefers owning the "company making this happen" (infrastructure) over the model companies. AI capability is improving on a "super exponential" curve. Regardless of which model wins (OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Google), they all require massive compute and energy. The infrastructure layer is the "pick and shovel" play that hedges against model obsolescence. Long the physical infrastructure powering AI. Overbuilding of capacity if AI monetization slows down. 59:48
AVOID Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures
Nick calls model companies "capital incinerators" and notes that OpenAI's revenue performance obligations (RPOs) are essentially "bad debt" because users might switch models easily. There is no moat in the model layer; Gemini, Claude, and Grok are interchangeable. Valuation is based on hype rather than defensible cash flows. Avoid the model layer due to commoditization risks and excessive private valuations. A single model achieves AGI first and captures a complete monopoly.
SOL
WATCH Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund
Chris states Solana has a "conundrum" because they built for spot (NASDAQ) but Hyperliquid is winning derivatives. While Solana has strong adoption in DePIN and payments, losing the derivatives market is a structural weakness in financial market plumbing. They must "solve for derivatives" to maintain their valuation premium. Watch Solana to see if they can recapture derivatives volume; otherwise, they risk losing the "financial hub" narrative. Hyperliquid continues to siphon liquidity, reducing SOL's fee generation.
LONG Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures
Nick argues the "VC backed flashy all token side is done" and that 90% of 2025 token launches are down. He pivots to "boring stuff" like stablecoins and tokenized equity. The market is maturing from speculative governance tokens to assets with real utility or cash flow. Capital will flow into infrastructure that powers banking activity (stablecoins) rather than speculative L1s. Long the infrastructure of "boring" crypto (Stablecoins, Tokenization). Regulatory bans on stablecoins or strict KYC requirements killing adoption. 12:04
BTC
WATCH Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund
Speakers agree Quantum is a threat. Chris notes that if devs don't fix it, "big institutions... will fire the devs and put in new devs." Bitcoin faces an existential technical risk (Quantum), but the "Corporate Takeover" thesis suggests BlackRock (IBIT) has too much capital at risk to let it fail. They will force a hard fork or upgrade if the open-source community is too slow. Watch Bitcoin's governance. The "institutional backstop" is now a technical safety net, not just a price safety net. A Quantum breakthrough happens faster than the 2-3 year upgrade cycle required to fix Bitcoin. 0:08
LONG Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund
Chris notes that Hyperliquid has come "out of nowhere and just dominates derivatives," while Solana (designed as the decentralized NASDAQ) missed this vertical. In traditional markets, derivatives always "eat" spot markets (e.g., ICE buying NYSE). If Solana cannot solve for derivatives, value and liquidity will migrate to purpose-built derivatives chains like Hyperliquid. Long Hyperliquid as the winner of the on-chain derivatives market share. Regulatory crackdowns on decentralized derivatives platforms. 25:53
AVOID Rahm Alawalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital
Rahm describes the Mag 7 as a "highly crowded and concentrated market" that is finally "leaking capital." The "animal spirits" are reversing. When the most crowded trade in history unwinds, it creates a high-beta sell-off. Capital is rotating to value and physical assets (Real Estate, Commodities, Industrials). Avoid Mag 7 as the rotation into value accelerates. Tech earnings re-accelerate, drawing capital back into growth. 7:07