| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Rahm Alawalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital |
Rahm states, "You should own Japan... Japan in the last 12 months is up 40%... The JP Morgan of Japan [MUFG] is up 57%." He notes corporate governance reforms are working. As capital leaks out of the crowded US Mag 7 trade, it seeks value and performance. Japan offers structural growth (governance reform) and value valuations compared to US tech. Long Japan as a beneficiary of the global rotation into value and international markets. Currency volatility (Yen) or a reversal in corporate governance reforms. | — | |
| LONG |
Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures |
Nick states, "I am not worried in the slightest about 600 billion of capex... I think this is bigger than the industrial revolution." He explicitly prefers owning the "company making this happen" (infrastructure) over the model companies. AI capability is improving on a "super exponential" curve. Regardless of which model wins (OpenAI vs. Anthropic vs. Google), they all require massive compute and energy. The infrastructure layer is the "pick and shovel" play that hedges against model obsolescence. Long the physical infrastructure powering AI. Overbuilding of capacity if AI monetization slows down. | 59:48 | |
| AVOID |
Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures |
Nick calls model companies "capital incinerators" and notes that OpenAI's revenue performance obligations (RPOs) are essentially "bad debt" because users might switch models easily. There is no moat in the model layer; Gemini, Claude, and Grok are interchangeable. Valuation is based on hype rather than defensible cash flows. Avoid the model layer due to commoditization risks and excessive private valuations. A single model achieves AGI first and captures a complete monopoly. | — | |
| WATCH |
Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund |
Chris states Solana has a "conundrum" because they built for spot (NASDAQ) but Hyperliquid is winning derivatives. While Solana has strong adoption in DePIN and payments, losing the derivatives market is a structural weakness in financial market plumbing. They must "solve for derivatives" to maintain their valuation premium. Watch Solana to see if they can recapture derivatives volume; otherwise, they risk losing the "financial hub" narrative. Hyperliquid continues to siphon liquidity, reducing SOL's fee generation. | — | |
| LONG |
Nick Carter
General Partner, Castle Island Ventures |
Nick argues the "VC backed flashy all token side is done" and that 90% of 2025 token launches are down. He pivots to "boring stuff" like stablecoins and tokenized equity. The market is maturing from speculative governance tokens to assets with real utility or cash flow. Capital will flow into infrastructure that powers banking activity (stablecoins) rather than speculative L1s. Long the infrastructure of "boring" crypto (Stablecoins, Tokenization). Regulatory bans on stablecoins or strict KYC requirements killing adoption. | 12:04 | |
| WATCH |
Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund |
Speakers agree Quantum is a threat. Chris notes that if devs don't fix it, "big institutions... will fire the devs and put in new devs." Bitcoin faces an existential technical risk (Quantum), but the "Corporate Takeover" thesis suggests BlackRock (IBIT) has too much capital at risk to let it fail. They will force a hard fork or upgrade if the open-source community is too slow. Watch Bitcoin's governance. The "institutional backstop" is now a technical safety net, not just a price safety net. A Quantum breakthrough happens faster than the 2-3 year upgrade cycle required to fix Bitcoin. | 0:08 | |
| LONG |
Chris Perkins
President, CoinFund |
Chris notes that Hyperliquid has come "out of nowhere and just dominates derivatives," while Solana (designed as the decentralized NASDAQ) missed this vertical. In traditional markets, derivatives always "eat" spot markets (e.g., ICE buying NYSE). If Solana cannot solve for derivatives, value and liquidity will migrate to purpose-built derivatives chains like Hyperliquid. Long Hyperliquid as the winner of the on-chain derivatives market share. Regulatory crackdowns on decentralized derivatives platforms. | 25:53 | |
| AVOID |
Rahm Alawalia
CEO, LuminArx Capital |
Rahm describes the Mag 7 as a "highly crowded and concentrated market" that is finally "leaking capital." The "animal spirits" are reversing. When the most crowded trade in history unwinds, it creates a high-beta sell-off. Capital is rotating to value and physical assets (Real Estate, Commodities, Industrials). Avoid Mag 7 as the rotation into value accelerates. Tech earnings re-accelerate, drawing capital back into growth. | 7:07 |