|
Feb 16
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Marco Rubio
Secretary of State
|
Rubio states, "If you face financial struggles... I know that President Trump will be very interested... to finding ways to provide assistance." This is an explicit geopolitical backstop (a "sovereign put option"). The US is effectively removing the tail risk of a Hungarian financial crisis or sovereign debt collapse. When the world's reserve currency issuer guarantees a smaller nation's stability, the risk premium on that nation's assets collapses, driving equity valuations higher. LONG Central/Eastern European exposure via broad EM or International funds. Deterioration of US-EU relations could isolate Hungary within the European block, counteracting US support. |
Bloomberg Markets
Rubio Says US, Hungary Are Entering 'Golden E...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Jim Paulsen
Former Chief Investment Strategist, Paulsen Perspectives
|
Paulsen states the economy is at "stall speed" (real GDP ex-trade is weak) and the job market has flatlined. He notes money supply is picking up, the dollar is falling, and the yield curve is steepening. The Fed will be forced to ease aggressively to prevent a recession. Historically, a backdrop of Fed easing, a lower dollar, and a steepening curve triggers a rotation away from crowded "New Era" growth stocks (Tech/AI) into neglected "Old Era" assets (Small Caps, Cyclicals, International). Long exposure to sectors that benefit from liquidity injections and a weaker dollar. If Zandi is right and inflation remains sticky at 3%, the Fed may not be able to ease as quickly as Paulsen expects. |
CNBC
The economy overall is weaker than widely ant...
|
|
Feb 13
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
—
|
"Over in Latin America, the market's up 20% this year." The narrative isn't just "Asia is good," but rather "US is bad relative to the world." Investors are seeking returns in emerging markets (LatAm) which are significantly outperforming US indices. LONG Emerging Markets (specifically Latin America) to capture the rotation away from the US dollar and US equities. Currency volatility in emerging markets or a strengthening US Dollar (DXY). |
Bloomberg Markets
S&P 500 Erases Year’s Gains, Asia Prospers: 3...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Scott Wapner
Host, CNBC
|
Scott Wapner cites data showing international markets (Israel, Brazil, Japan, UK) "trounced" the U.S. trade last year. He notes that PIMCO and Amundi are explicitly pivoting away from U.S. assets due to "unpredictable policies" and valuation gaps. The U.S. market's dominance has forced global competitors to adopt shareholder-friendly reforms (like Japan's corporate governance changes). As major asset managers reallocate capital to these cheaper, reforming markets to diversify political risk, international indices will capture the flow. LONG International/EM indices to capture the rotation. U.S. exceptionalism continues; global geopolitical instability. |
CNBC
How to play the "sell U.S." trade
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Ashu Khullar
CEO, Citi India (Implied based on context of Citi India leadership and "Paul" as interviewer)
|
Gross FDI into India remains robust ($80-90bn/year). The government is aggressively pursuing "China + 1" manufacturing policies and trade deals with the EU and US. Despite "rich valuations" causing some capital repatriation, the structural inflows into manufacturing and infrastructure (supported by Western trade deals) underpin a long-term growth story for the Indian economy. Long Emerging Markets with a specific overweight on India to capture the manufacturing renaissance and consumption growth. "Rich valuations" in Indian equities could lead to a correction; Net FDI outflows if global rates remain high. |
Bloomberg Markets
Citi Expects India Investment Boost From Trad...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
AVOID
|
Peter Navarro
Senior Counsel on Trade and Manufacturing (Trump Adviser)
|
"Every country that we trade with is like fingerprints... they cheat us in their own way... India... Japan... China... [Trump] goes country by country... and he sets the tariffs according to how badly they're cheating us." The confirmation of a "bespoke" (highly specific and likely punitive) tariff regime introduces significant uncertainty for export-driven economies. Japan (non-tariff barriers) and China (mixed barriers) are explicitly named as targets, suggesting their exporters face imminent margin compression or volume loss. Avoid markets heavily reliant on US exports until specific tariff schedules are announced. Diplomatic negotiations could result in exemptions or softer deals than implied by the hardline rhetoric. |
Bloomberg Markets
Navarro says it's "criminal" how much Jamie D...
|
|
Feb 12
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Raj Subramaniam
CEO and President of FedEx
|
"Supply chain patterns are changing everywhere... We've made significant moves in Osaka, Japan... Vietnam... India... Riyadh... Chile." FedEx is front-running the "China Plus One" manufacturing shift. By investing heavily in infrastructure in Vietnam, India, and Saudi Arabia, they are signaling where the next decade of manufacturing output will originate. Investors should allocate to these specific emerging markets as beneficiaries of global supply chain re-routing. LONG. Focus on the specific beneficiaries of supply chain diversification (India/Vietnam/Saudi Arabia). Geopolitical instability in emerging markets; currency fluctuations. |
CNBC
FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam: We are undergoing ...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Dan Suzuki
Investment Strategist, Schroders
|
The US Dollar is expensive relative to history, and US market concentration is at record highs. If the US Dollar mean reverts (weakens) due to lower interest rates or debt concerns, international assets (which are cheaper) will outperform US equities. LONG. A diversification play to capture valuation spreads and currency tailwinds. The US economy continues to exceptionalize, keeping the Dollar strong. |
Bloomberg Markets
Stocks Steady After Strong Jobs Data Dims Rat...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Bill Ford
Chairman, Ford Motor Company
|
"Investors would be really going to be missing out if they're not active in China... China, as the second largest economy... is a center for innovation in lots of areas like green technology." While many Western investors are uninvestable in China due to geopolitics, General Atlantic is maintaining its exposure, citing innovation (Green Tech) and the necessity of global diversification to manage US-specific macro risks. Contrarian Long on Global Innovation (specifically China/Emerging Markets). Escalation of US-China trade restrictions or sanctions. |
Bloomberg Markets
.General Atlantic CEO Ford on Current Investi...
|
|
Feb 11
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management
|
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes. |
The Compound News
What Would You Do With $3 Million? | Animal S...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Peter Boockvar
Chief Investment Officer, BFG Wealth Partners
|
The US market became historically expensive relative to its GDP contribution. Investors are now realizing "seven stocks are not all of our choices" and are diversifying into the other 96% of the world's population. A weaker US Dollar makes international assets instantly more valuable in dollar terms. Additionally, trade wars and reduced reliance on the US have forced these countries to deregulate, cut red tape, and form their own trade relationships, improving their internal fundamentals. Korea doubled in a year driven by memory chips; roughly one-third of international returns were driven purely by currency translation (weaker dollar). A sudden resurgence in US Dollar strength would dampen returns for US-based investors. |
CNBC
Dollar weakness was a major catalyst for glob...
|
|
Feb 09
|
|
—
|
LONG
|
Doug Boneparth
President of Bone Fide Wealth
|
The speaker advises looking away from US Large Caps and focusing on Midcaps, Small Caps, Developed International, and Emerging Markets. These "boring" sectors are becoming exciting because they offer better valuations and diversification compared to the crowded US tech trade. They are coming off a strong performance in 2025 and offer a way to stay invested without overexposure to US tech volatility. International markets had an "amazing 2025." Global macroeconomic instability or trade wars. |
CNBC
Market rotation holds as AI uncertainty keeps...
|