| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LONG |
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
The ratio chart of International Developed stocks (EFA) divided by US Total Market (VTI) flatlined, puked, recovered, and is now accelerating upwards. This technical pattern looks like a "real bottom" after years of false starts. A weakening US Dollar and the "broadening out" trade support international assets. International stocks are finally set to outperform US stocks. US Dollar strengthens again; US tech dominance resumes. | — | |
| LONG |
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
Alternative asset managers like Blackstone (BX), KKR, and Blue Owl (OWL) have sold off (OWL down ~50%) due to fears over their Private Credit exposure to software companies. The market is pricing in a systemic failure of software loans within private credit portfolios. Michael views this contagion fear as "way overdone" for the top-tier managers. Blackstone specifically is a "screaming buy" at these levels. Significant defaults in private software loans. | 28:47 | |
| LONG |
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
Software stocks have crashed violently (IGV -33%, MSFT -25% wiping out $357B). There was a "panic liquidation" and "puke" in volume on Thursday. While the long-term moat of SaaS is legitimately threatened by AI coding agents (deflationary pressure), the short-term sell-off is an emotional overreaction. When a sector is "held underwater" this long and sellers exhaust, it acts like a buoy and pops back up. Buy the panic for a tactical bounce. The structural bear case (AI replaces SaaS) is true; margins compress permanently. | 9:35 | |
| WATCH |
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
BDCs and Private Credit firms have high exposure to software loans (ARCC has 24% in software/services; industry average ~22%). If the "death of SaaS" narrative gains traction, the collateral backing these loans (recurring revenue software businesses) becomes questionable. Be cautious of BDCs with heavy software exposure during this sentiment shift. Software companies prove resilient; default rates remain low. | 28:42 | |
| AVOID |
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
Walmart trades at 46x PE; Costco at 54x PE. The forward PE of the Consumer Staples sector is now at parity with the Tech sector. Investors are rushing into "safety" (Staples) as an "anti-AI trade," pushing valuations to nonsensical levels. Paying 50x earnings for low-growth staples is historically dangerous. While momentum is strong, the valuation risk is extreme ("crazy"). Momentum continues as investors flee volatility in tech. | 6:53 | |
| LONG |
Michael Batnick
Managing Partner, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
Bitcoin crashed to the $60k range, and sentiment is described as "the worst ever." Put volume and share volume spiked, indicating capitulation. This is a classic "liquidation break." Michael prefers buying into panic selling where sellers are exhausted. Tactical long (bought IBIT at $66k). Plan to sell on a bounce to $72k or stop out at $63k. If it crashes to $50k, he would buy for the long term. Crypto continues to trade like a high-beta software stock (correlation with IGV is high). | 46:52 | |
| LONG |
Ben Carlson
Director of Institutional Asset Management, Ritholtz Wealth Management |
C.H. Robinson is a logistics company using AI to match drivers with trucks more efficiently. The stock chart has gone "parabolic." Unlike companies just talking about AI, CHRW is demonstrating actual "AI-driven economic gains." It is a real-world beneficiary of the productivity boom. Long momentum in companies proving AI ROI. Cyclical downturn in shipping/logistics. | 41:07 |