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Trade Ideas (1)
Date Ticker Price Dir Speaker Thesis Source
Feb 13 NEUTRAL MEP
Top 100 Polymarket Trader
MEP notes that Trump's tweets (e.g., instructing to "keep negotiating") are direct signals for de-escalation, leading MEP to bet "No" on imminent war in the Middle East. The market often overprices war risk based on mainstream media; tracking specific leadership comms (Trump) provides an edge to fade war FUD. NEUTRAL/SHORT VOLATILITY on war-linked assets (like Oil/Defense) when Trump signals negotiation. Insider trading by state actors (e.g., Iran/Israel) manipulating prediction market odds to deceive enemies. Thread Guy
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