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Feb 18
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LONG
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V
Former SEC / Web3 Legal Expert
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Physical coercion (muggers forcing transfers) is forcing fintechs like Revolut to implement time-delays and "reversible" features. Pure, instant, irreversible self-custody is becoming too dangerous for the average retail user due to physical threats. The market will shift back toward centralized, custodial intermediaries (like Coinbase) that can offer "safety friction" (delays, identity verification) that hardware wallets cannot. Long compliant custodians as the "safe haven" for retail wealth against physical extortion. "Not your keys, not your coins" philosophy remains strong among crypto natives. |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Crypto Power, Political Pressure, and Real-Wo...
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Feb 14
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WATCH
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Craig Lurich
Head of Vaults at Chaos Labs
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Chaos Labs is powering "Kraken Earn" using on-chain vaults to provide yield to Kraken users. Centralized Exchanges (CEXs) are pivoting from simple trading venues to "DeFi Mullets" (Fintech in the front, DeFi in the back). They are integrating on-chain yield directly into user accounts. This benefits the exchanges (retention) and the underlying DeFi protocols they utilize. Watch CEXs (like Coinbase/Kraken) for increased earnings derived from "Earn" products as they capture DeFi yields for retail users. Regulatory crackdowns on "Earn" products (similar to the SEC vs. Gemini/Genesis). |
The Block
BlackRock buying UNI and other DeFi updates, ...
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Jan 30
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NEUTRAL
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Katherine "KK"
Host, Starkware
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KK states, "We are watching the real-time deterioration of the prospects of crypto market structure law being passed." V predicts Congress will not give the CFTC reciprocal authority to regulate crypto securities, favoring the SEC. The market has been pricing in a "regulatory clarity premium" (the expectation that a bill will pass). If the bill is dead, that premium must be priced out. Furthermore, if the SEC wins total jurisdiction (the "Super App" theory), it favors incumbents with massive legal teams (like traditional brokers or large exchanges) over smaller, crypto-native entities hoping for a lighter CFTC regime. NEUTRAL/AVOID. The "Alpha" from a legislative win is off the table. The environment remains "regulation by enforcement" or strict SEC oversight. Unexpected bipartisan breakthrough on the bill (though speakers deem this unlikely). |
Unchained (Chopping Block)
Blame Exchanges for Holding Up the Market Str...
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