| Ticker | Direction | Speaker | Thesis | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WATCH |
Katherine "KK"
Host, Starkware |
Donald Trump has sued JPMorgan and Jamie Dimon personally for $5 billion regarding "debanking" allegations from 2021. While the headline number is shock-value ($5B), the speakers analyze this as a "lose-lose" situation for banks caught between regulatory pressure (Chokepoint 2.0) and commercial interests. The lawsuit is likely political theater, but it creates headline risk and legal overhead for JPM. NEUTRAL. The lawsuit is described as a "distraction," but it highlights the systemic risk of "debanking" for politically sensitive industries (like crypto). It is not a fundamental short on JPM's earnings, but a reason to watch for regulatory backlash against major banks. If the lawsuit reveals explicit government coercion (Chokepoint 2.0 proof), it could lead to massive fines or restrictions for the banking sector. | — | |
| NEUTRAL |
Katherine "KK"
Host, Starkware |
KK states, "We are watching the real-time deterioration of the prospects of crypto market structure law being passed." V predicts Congress will not give the CFTC reciprocal authority to regulate crypto securities, favoring the SEC. The market has been pricing in a "regulatory clarity premium" (the expectation that a bill will pass). If the bill is dead, that premium must be priced out. Furthermore, if the SEC wins total jurisdiction (the "Super App" theory), it favors incumbents with massive legal teams (like traditional brokers or large exchanges) over smaller, crypto-native entities hoping for a lighter CFTC regime. NEUTRAL/AVOID. The "Alpha" from a legislative win is off the table. The environment remains "regulation by enforcement" or strict SEC oversight. Unexpected bipartisan breakthrough on the bill (though speakers deem this unlikely). | 31:06 | |
| LONG |
Jesse
Rivet Capital |
A third-party government contractor (CMDSS) hired to hold seized crypto for the US Marshals had funds stolen ($20M+) because an executive's son leaked keys during a livestream. The speakers note the government already uses Coinbase for major assets but uses contractors for "lower tier" tokens. This scandal is a massive embarrassment for the US government's custody protocols. It validates the "Flight to Quality" thesis. The government will be forced to consolidate assets away from small, obscure contractors and toward the only "Fort Knox" standard explicitly mentioned in the text: Coinbase. LONG. This event acts as a catalyst for Coinbase to secure exclusive, higher-value government custody contracts as the state seeks to eliminate third-party counterparty risk. Government decides to build custody "in-house" (mentioned as a desire by V), though speakers admit this is unlikely due to technical incompetence. | 19:50 |