The 30 Worst Performing Stocks This Year

Quoth the Raven · QTR’s Fringe Finance · 30 июля 2026, 10:46 · ⏱ 10 мин чтения  | Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The article argues that AI disruption fears have triggered a sharp sell-off in many software stocks, creating potential value opportunities in beaten-down quality names. The author identifies specific stocks to avoid (APP, PLTR, PSKY) and others on his watchlist (ISRG, ACN, CHTR, ZTS) while highlighting a broader market rotation toward companies with strong free cash flow and away from those with heavy AI spending.
  • 17 of the 30 worst-performing S&P 500 stocks year-to-date are software and related services companies, driven by investor fears that AI will compress pricing power and reduce moats.
  • The market is rewarding companies with strong free cash flow and punishing those spending aggressively on AI without clear returns, as seen with Google and Tesla being sold after FCF turned negative.
  • The author's 'Discarded Dozen' list (including INTU, LULU, CRM, ADBE, NOW, NKE) has averaged +11% since June 12, compared to the S&P 500 flat and SpaceX (SPCX) down 28%.
  • The author explicitly warns to avoid Applovin (APP), Palantir (PLTR), and Paramount Skydance (PSKY), the latter of which he expects to go to zero.
  • The author is watching Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) after a 40% decline from its 52-week high, and Accenture (ACN), Charter Communications (CHTR), and Zoetis (ZTS) near multi-year lows.
  • IPO data shows a median one-year return of -30% and a median maximum drawdown of -52% after the first-day close, reinforcing the author's advice to avoid IPOs.
Время чтения 10 мин
Объём 10,123 симв.
Категория finance
Идеи
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author is monitoring Zoetis after it reached an eight-year low, suggesting a possible bargain.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
The article notes that Google was sold after free cash flow turned negative due to soaring AI-related capital expenditures, indicating market punishment for heavy AI spending without clear returns.
The article notes that Google was sold after free cash flow turned negative due to soaring AI-related capital expenditures, indicating market punishment for heavy AI spending without clear returns. Risk: AI capex may continue to pressure FCF; competitive AI landscape could weigh on margins.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author explicitly warns against Applovin, placing it on his 'Filthy Five' list of stocks to avoid due to fundamental or valuation concerns.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author explicitly warns against Palantir, placing it on his 'Filthy Five' list of stocks to avoid.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author strongly advises avoiding Paramount Skydance, predicting the stock will go to zero if the Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition goes through, or take a little longer otherwise.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author added Intuitive Surgical to his watchlist after a 40% decline from its 52-week high, indicating potential value opportunity.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author is monitoring Accenture after a sharp drop to around $125 and subsequent recovery to ~$165, signaling interest in a deeper analysis.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Author is monitoring Charter Communications after it hit a 13-year low, seeing a potential value play.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Similar to Google, Tesla was sold after FCF turned negative due to AI-related capex, reflecting negative market sentiment toward companies with high AI spending.
Similar to Google, Tesla was sold after FCF turned negative due to AI-related capex, reflecting negative market sentiment toward companies with high AI spending. Risk: Potential further FCF deterioration and valuation compression if AI investments don't yield near-term profits.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
The article states Apple is 'rewarded for financial discipline,' contrasting it with companies like Google and Tesla, suggesting strong free cash flow and prudent AI spending are being favored by the
The article states Apple is 'rewarded for financial discipline,' contrasting it with companies like Google and Tesla, suggesting strong free cash flow and prudent AI spending are being favored by the market. Risk: Upside may be limited if Apple's own AI investments fail to meet expectations or if overall tech rotation reverses.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
The author explicitly states he is not tempted to buy Oracle because other tech giants have better growth prospects at lower valuations, and the stock has since declined 42%. This implies a negative v
The author explicitly states he is not tempted to buy Oracle because other tech giants have better growth prospects at lower valuations, and the stock has since declined 42%. This implies a negative view on ORCL's relative value and growth outlook. Risk: Oracle may continue to underperform if its AI/cloud strategy fails to gain traction with investors.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Salesforce is part of the author's 'Discarded Dozen' list, which he predicts will outperform SpaceX over the next year, and the group has averaged +11% since June 12, suggesting near-term momentum.
Salesforce is part of the author's 'Discarded Dozen' list, which he predicts will outperform SpaceX over the next year, and the group has averaged +11% since June 12, suggesting near-term momentum. Risk: Software sector headwinds from AI disruption could reverse gains; the prediction may not hold over a longer period.
Quoth the Raven Автор Substack, QTR’s Fringe Finance
Adobe is also included in the 'Discarded Dozen' list, with the author expecting it to outperform and noting the group's recent 11% average gain. This implies a bullish catalyst from a valuation or sen
Adobe is also included in the 'Discarded Dozen' list, with the author expecting it to outperform and noting the group's recent 11% average gain. This implies a bullish catalyst from a valuation or sentiment rebound. Risk: As a legacy software company, Adobe faces AI disruption risk; the outperformance may be temporary.
Ещё от QTR’s Fringe Finance

This newsletter, published July 30, 2026, features Quoth the Raven discussing ZTS, GOOGL, APP, PLTR, PSKY, ISRG, ACN, CHTR, TSLA, AAPL, ORCL, CRM, ADBE. 13 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Quoth the Raven  · Tickers: ZTS, GOOGL, APP, PLTR, PSKY, ISRG, ACN, CHTR, TSLA, AAPL, ORCL, CRM, ADBE