Offsides Macro
· Offsides Macro
· 09 августа 2026, 15:23
· ⏱ 1 мин чтения
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Резюме
Positioning extremes across markets are unwinding: USD has already pulled back from Offsides, while CAD/NZD, silver/platinum/palladium, and energy remain at notable positioning extremes. This means crowded consensus longs (S&P, 2s, EM FX, gold/copper) are skewed for consolidation, while less-crowded metals offer better long risk/reward.
•Equity positioning backed off across the board excluding EEM; S&P is consensus overweight while Nasdaq and Russell are consensus underweight.
•USD positioning has pulled back to a neutral-to-upper-quartile range; the author says 'exits from Offsides' have worked well over the past 18 months.
•JPY positioning is higher and now sits at levels similar to the May intervention timeframe.
•Notional OI-weighted metals are consensus overweight led by gold and copper, yet silver, platinum, and palladium are called 'better long risk/reward.'
•Energy positioning is drifting toward the lower quartile, with pullbacks in Brent, natural gas, and RBOB.
Article directly says 'Silver, Platinum and Palladium are better long risk/reward' at a time when aggregate metals positioning is already consensus OW driven by gold/copper, implying silver is the les
Article directly says 'Silver, Platinum and Palladium are better long risk/reward' at a time when aggregate metals positioning is already consensus OW driven by gold/copper, implying silver is the less-crowded long.
Risk: SLV is a broad silver proxy; if USD positioning turns more bullish or industrial demand weakens, silver can underperform.
'Silver, Platinum and Palladium are better long risk/reward' names platinum as a preferred long within metals despite aggregate commodities positioning being OW.
'Silver, Platinum and Palladium are better long risk/reward' names platinum as a preferred long within metals despite aggregate commodities positioning being OW.
Risk: Platinum demand is concentrated in autocatalysts and jewelry; a macro slowdown would pressure the physical metal.
Palladium is explicitly included in the author's 'better long risk/reward' metals list, making it an implied beneficiary relative to crowded gold/copper longs.
Palladium is explicitly included in the author's 'better long risk/reward' metals list, making it an implied beneficiary relative to crowded gold/copper longs.
Risk: Palladium has a small, volatile market and an ETF proxy may diverge from spot due to contango/backwardation.
This newsletter, published August 09, 2026,
features Offsides Macro
discussing SLV, PPLT, PALL.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.