Michael Burry
· Cassandra Unchained
· 10 июля 2026, 19:37
· ⏱ 2 мин чтения
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Резюме
The fate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common shares hinges entirely on the Treasury's decision on the Senior Preferred Stock Liquidation Preference (SPS LP). If affirmed, shares fall to low single digits; if deemed paid off, shares could surge 3-4x, with clarity on this issue expected before any IPO. The outcome is a political decision within the Trump Administration, making the stocks a binary bet on regulatory resolution.
•The SPS LP is the largest driver of GSE share value, growing with retained earnings, but common shareholders currently have no claim to those earnings.
•If the SPS LP is affirmed by Treasury, stocks will fall to low single digits; if deemed paid off, stocks could rise 3-4x from current levels.
•The author is 'fairly confident' clarification on the SPS will precede any IPO, as marketing likely cannot proceed without it.
•The stock chart exhibits a head and shoulders pattern reflecting investor psychology tied to fundamental news items, but the ultimate outcome rests with the Trump Administration.