Damnang
· Damnang’s Substack
· 29 июля 2026, 00:31
· ⏱ 3 мин чтения
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Резюме
The recent semiconductor selloff is overdone because the market's fear of a memory oversupply in 2028 ignores that HBM structurally reduces bits per wafer, constraining supply. This suggests that HBM-focused memory makers like SK hynix and Micron may be undervalued relative to the pessimistic earnings assumptions priced in.
•SK hynix peak quarterly EPS of 150,000 won annualizes to 600,000 won, and today's close of 1,555,000 won is 2.6 times that — implying the market expects a 70% earnings decline within four quarters.
•The market assumes $75 billion of combined capex at Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron will land as bits in 2028, but the author argues HBM lowers bits per wafer significantly.
•Shipping 1GB of HBM3E consumes roughly the wafer area of 3GB of commodity DRAM, and 16-high HBM4 pushes that to four times.
•China's CXMT listed in Shanghai and jumped 471% on debut, passing Intel in market value, while a report of China developing immersion DUV lithography sent ASML down 5.8%.
•Nvidia backstopped $250 billion of OpenAI data center investment, reviving concerns about circular financing within the AI complex.
•The drop was described as excessive relative to fundamentals, with no single headline explaining it and analysts noting weakened sentiment amplified the decline.
Article argues that HBM's structural reduction in bits per wafer (3x for HBM3E, 4x for HBM4) limits oversupply risk, which directly benefits Micron as a major memory maker alongside SK hynix. The impl
Article argues that HBM's structural reduction in bits per wafer (3x for HBM3E, 4x for HBM4) limits oversupply risk, which directly benefits Micron as a major memory maker alongside SK hynix. The implied earnings multiple is depressed, suggesting upside if oversupply fears are overblown.
Risk: If AI demand stalls or China memory competition accelerates, earnings could still decline sharply.
Article reports that news of China developing immersion DUV lithography sent ASML down 5.8%, and the broader selloff was partly driven by China's competitive advances in semiconductor equipment. This
Article reports that news of China developing immersion DUV lithography sent ASML down 5.8%, and the broader selloff was partly driven by China's competitive advances in semiconductor equipment. This poses a long-term threat to ASML's lithography monopoly.
Risk: China's DUV development is still early; near-term impact may be limited, but the narrative could persist as a headwind.