Damnang
· Damnang’s Substack
· 25 июля 2026, 13:11
· ⏱ 3 мин чтения
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Резюме
The memory industry's shift toward custom AI products is more complicated than a simple bullish narrative, as suppliers still face limited power due to commodity legacy and customer requirements. Despite AI-driven demand and supply shortages improving near-term dynamics, structural weaknesses persist, making the memory business still largely cyclical and supplier-constrained.
•Memory business has traditionally been cyclical with suppliers holding little power, as customers controlled pricing.
•AI-driven demand has shifted the bottleneck from compute to memory, causing supply shortages and stronger supplier positions.
•Multiyear LTA contracts have improved earnings visibility and bargaining power for memory companies.
•The author's previous bullish thesis was based on memory moving from commodity to custom market, but on-the-ground meetings revealed the reality is more complex.
•The memory business remains largely commodity-based, with suppliers ultimately having to meet customer requirements—a persistent weakness.
•The power struggle around memory has intensified, but suppliers still lack structural leverage.