What Happened In Photonics Last Week

Gaetano · Gaetano · 27 июля 2026, 02:36 · ⏱ 8 мин чтения  | Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The global photonics supply chain is experiencing a structural demand surge driven by AI data centers, evidenced by multi-billion-dollar fiber contracts, silicon-photonics wafer prepayments, and massive DSP/optical module ramp. However, market fear and compressed multiples have prevented stock prices from reflecting this fundamental strength, creating potential mispricing for investors willing to look past near-term sentiment.
  • Prysmian signed a 10-year, ~$6.3B fiber supply deal with Molex, including a $626M upfront commitment from Molex to secure dedicated capacity.
  • Soitec's Photonics-SOI wafer revenue doubled and is expected to more than double again in fiscal 2027, with customers signing multi-year capacity agreements and paying deposits.
  • Tower Semi disclosed $1.3B of contracted 2027 silicon-photonics revenue and $290M in customer prepayments, and is preparing a major 300 mm expansion.
  • Nokia reported 105% growth from AI/cloud customers, with ~$3.2B in AI/cloud order intake, half expected to convert within 12 months.
  • MaxLinear posted 55% revenue growth and 145% infrastructure growth, with its Keystone 800G PAM4 DSP in commercial production and 1.6T as the next major product generation.
  • Zhongji Innolight and Eoptolink are pursuing Hong Kong listings that could collectively raise over $12B for Chinese optical-module suppliers.
Время чтения 8 мин
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Категория finance
Идеи
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
Nokia's Optical Networks grew 20% constant-currency, AI/cloud orders reached ~$3.2B, and the author calls this a 'very strong proof point' with a 'very promising future'. The stock fell despite the re
Nokia's Optical Networks grew 20% constant-currency, AI/cloud orders reached ~$3.2B, and the author calls this a 'very strong proof point' with a 'very promising future'. The stock fell despite the report, suggesting a contrarian opportunity. Risk: Order conversion timing; macro slowdown in telecom spending.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
Tower Semi disclosed $1.3 billion of contracted 2027 silicon-photonics revenue and $290 million in customer prepayments, with a major 300 mm expansion underway. This indicates strong, pre-funded deman
Tower Semi disclosed $1.3 billion of contracted 2027 silicon-photonics revenue and $290 million in customer prepayments, with a major 300 mm expansion underway. This indicates strong, pre-funded demand for silicon-photonics manufacturing. Risk: Execution risk on the 300 mm ramp; customer concentration.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
MaxLinear reported 55% revenue growth and 145% infrastructure growth, with its 800G PAM4 DSP in commercial production and 1.6T positioned as the next generation. The article notes 'massive growth' des
MaxLinear reported 55% revenue growth and 145% infrastructure growth, with its 800G PAM4 DSP in commercial production and 1.6T positioned as the next generation. The article notes 'massive growth' despite a weak stock reaction, implying potential mispricing. Risk: Competition from Broadcom and Marvell in DSPs; customer concentration.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
STMicroelectronics' RF and Optical Communications segment grew 32% with a 21.2% operating margin, though weakness elsewhere caused the stock to decline. The optical business is fundamentally strong.
STMicroelectronics' RF and Optical Communications segment grew 32% with a 21.2% operating margin, though weakness elsewhere caused the stock to decline. The optical business is fundamentally strong. Risk: Weakness in automotive and industrial segments may persist.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
ADTRAN lowered guidance due to a delayed customer project, freight expenses, and component costs. The author notes a 'small revenue shortfall caused a much larger reduction in operating profit', expos
ADTRAN lowered guidance due to a delayed customer project, freight expenses, and component costs. The author notes a 'small revenue shortfall caused a much larger reduction in operating profit', exposing high fixed costs. Risk: Further project delays or cost inflation could worsen margins.
Gaetano Автор Substack, Гаэтано
UMC moved a 1.6T silicon-photonics platform into mass production on 12-inch wafers in partnership with SILITH. This positions UMC to benefit from the silicon-photonics ramp as a foundry supplier.
UMC moved a 1.6T silicon-photonics platform into mass production on 12-inch wafers in partnership with SILITH. This positions UMC to benefit from the silicon-photonics ramp as a foundry supplier. Risk: Competition from TSMC and Tower Semi; capacity allocation decisions.
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