chumba
· The Cookie Chumbles
· 29 апреля 2026, 00:30
· ⏱ 10 мин чтения
| Читать в Substack ↗
Резюме
The article argues that the AI revolution (greatest technology) combined with the passive investing market structure bubble (inelastic flows, market-cap weighting) creates an underappreciated right tail, particularly for QQQ. The author believes the Nasdaq could triple over the next few years and has personally bought deep OTM QQQ calls to capture this extreme upside.
•Passive investing's share of equity fund assets has risen from single digits in 2000 to mid-50% in 2026, creating a market-cap-weighted bubble with 10-100x multiplier on inflows.
•Mike Green's illustrative model suggests multiples could 2-3x by 2029-2030 if passive continues to grow 3-4% per year and is not disrupted.
•META's board granted C-suite multi-year deep OTM call options expiring in 2031, some requiring the stock to 6x, implying internal confidence in AI capex ROIC.
•Anthropic's revenue curve is in 'singularity' – added $3.5B annualized revenue in January, $8B in February, and $10.5B in March 2026.
•Gabaix and Koijen's 'Inelastic Markets Hypothesis' shows liquidity doesn't scale with market cap – Apple is ~36x a $100B stock but only ~5x more liquid, amplifying passive flows into mega-caps.
•Author's QQQ forward earnings math: $27 EPS growing 25% for 2 years to $42, with 50% multiple expansion to 35x, yields $1500 per share by June 2028 (roughly a triple).
Author highlights META's board granting executives deep OTM call options with strikes requiring stock to double or 6x by 2031, indicating internal belief in extremely high AI capex returns and a possi
Author highlights META's board granting executives deep OTM call options with strikes requiring stock to double or 6x by 2031, indicating internal belief in extremely high AI capex returns and a possible 'degenerate AGI singularity' scenario.
Risk: Options are deeply out-of-money and could expire worthless if AI investment doesn't deliver; META's capex spend is massive with no guarantee of ROIC.
The entire AI narrative – especially Anthropic's doubling revenue monthly and META's AGI bets – implies immense demand for training and inference GPUs, making NVIDIA a primary beneficiary of the AI in
The entire AI narrative – especially Anthropic's doubling revenue monthly and META's AGI bets – implies immense demand for training and inference GPUs, making NVIDIA a primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout.
Risk: Valuation already elevated; any slowdown in AI spending or shift to custom chips could pressure NVDA's dominance.
Author sees underappreciated right tail from combination of AI singularity narrative and passive market structure bubble (inelastic flows, market-cap weighting) leading to potential Nasdaq triple in 2
Author sees underappreciated right tail from combination of AI singularity narrative and passive market structure bubble (inelastic flows, market-cap weighting) leading to potential Nasdaq triple in 2-3 years. Deep OTM LEAPs capture volatile upside.
This newsletter, published April 29, 2026,
features chumba
discussing META, NVDA, QQQ.
3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.