The US consumer, not AI, carried the economy in 1H26, but that spending surge was a nominal defense against surging gas prices and is now showing signs of exhaustion. Without household blowout spending, growth is likely to be far slower than consensus expects, implying a consumer-led slowdown risk for markets.
•US households carried the economy in 1H26 with a surge in nominal spending.
•The author argues the US consumer, not AI, has rescued the US economy since the start of the year.
•Households increased nominal spending to keep up with surging gas prices.
•Without the blowout in household spending, growth is likely to be far slower than many expect.