Do NOT but Calls or PUTS for NVDIA tomorrow

=== SUMMARY === - Author warns against buying NVDA calls or puts into the earnings report, claiming the move will be muted (~±1.2%) and options will likely expire worthless. - Thesis is not directional: earnings will neither disappoint nor surprise, so option buyers are paying too much for an expected move that won’t happen. - Quality assessment: Speculation/noise, not well-researched DD. The author explicitly states no insider info and provides no concrete data beyond a generalized expectation of a small move. === SENTIMENT === NEUTRAL === TRADE IDEAS === NVDA - AVOID | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.00 Speaker: u/Successful_Cod4379 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author expects NVDA earnings to be in-line with no major upside or downside surprise, producing only a ~1.2% move. 2. THE BRIDGE: Option premiums into earnings are priced for larger moves, so buying either calls or puts likely has negative expected value. 3. THE VERDICT: Avoid buying NVDA options around the earnings event; do not pay premium for a move that probably will not materialize. 4. RISKS: A guidance surprise or CEO commentary could spark a much larger move, or the stock could finally break out/dump as commenters suggest. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - Don't buy NVDA calls/puts pre-earnings - Expected move only ~1.2% - Options likely expire worthless - Author neutral on direction - Avoid paying premium into earnings === COMMENTS SUMMARY === Community reactions are mixed: some expect the typical earnings beat followed by a dump, while others argue that “everyone knows this” increases the chance of a breakout. A few commenters are still going full-port long calls, and one suggests the author run an iron condor if truly confident in a small move. Overall, the comments reinforce uncertainty around NVDA’s earnings reaction rather than providing a clear directional edge.