=== SUMMARY ===
- Post applies Charlie Munger’s “Psychology of Human Misjudgment” checklist to the SpaceX IPO, arguing multiple behavioral biases encourage overoptimism.
- Author concludes Munger likely would not buy SpaceX; the IPO narrative appears driven by liking, social proof, availability, authority, and envy tendencies.
- Quality assessment: Thought-provoking opinion piece / behavioral analysis, not fundamental valuation DD; more speculative commentary than actionable research.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BEARISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
No actionable trade ideas in this post.
Timeframe: N/A
Key Points:
- No specific tradeable ticker or position proposed.
- Author warns against IPO hype via behavioral biases.
- SpaceX is not directly tradeable as a standard ticker.
- Framework is qualitative, not valuation-driven.
- Read as cautionary commentary, not investment thesis.
Оценка15
Комментарии27
% апвоутов78%
▶ Полный текст поста
I really like Charlie Munger's talk *The Psychology of Human Misjudgment*. I've also been following the SpaceX story, before/during/after the IPO, and I can't help but imagine what Munger would think about this. It's safe to say he wouldn't be a buyer. Anyway, I thought it would be interesting to go down his list of 25 human misjudgments in that talk and see how many might apply to the SpaceX IPO.
Excluding the lollapalooza compounding effect, I came up with seven (well really six, plus two more that I thought half-applied). They are:
* Liking/loving tendency (1/2)
* Envy/jealousy tendency
* Influence-from-mere-association tendency
* Overoptimism tendency
* Social-proof tendency
* Contrast-misreaction tendency
* Availability-misweighing tendency
* Authority-misinfluence tendency (1/2)
* Lollapalooza tendency
Would be curious to hear what others think too.
I wrote a longer article going into detail on all this too. If you want to read, you can find it [here](https://marketnarratology.substack.com/p/what-would-charlie-munger-say-about).
Importantly, Munger's talk doesn't discuss other aspects like greed, simple speculative risk-taking, or fear of missing out. He describes these elsewhere in his writings/talks, just not in this article. It's definitely the case that those are all at play with SpaceX too.