AppLovin - What am I missing

=== SUMMARY === - Author argues AppLovin’s 50% YTD drop is overdone despite small Q2 guidance/EBITDA misses, citing strong revenue growth, 65% margins, and cheap multiples. - Thesis leans bullish on e-commerce and CTV expansion, with AppLovin’s 2-5x ROAS advantage vs. Google/Amazon as a key moat. - Quality: Data-driven but optimistic DD; relies heavily on management’s explanation for the miss and future TAM assumptions, so it is not a deep-value confirmation. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === APP - WATCH | confidence: 0.55 | sentiment: +0.60 Speaker: u/Yee4614 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Q2 revenue growth remained strong, EPS was solid, and the small adj. EBITDA/guidance miss was attributed to a model update; e-commerce grew 28% in a seasonally weak quarter. 2. THE BRIDGE: The 50% YTD selloff looks like a harsh reaction to a minor miss; if growth reaccelerates, the stock could re-rate higher, creating a potential long entry. 3. THE VERDICT: Author sees an attractive risk/reward but is not yet committed; the sensible move is to watch for proof that growth and margins hold before diving in. 4. RISKS: Model update fails to restore growth; competition from Google/Amazon intensifies; gaming market slows; e-commerce/CTV ramp disappoints; continued multiple compression. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - 50% YTD drawdown from market repricing - Q2 growth strong but guidance/EBITDA missed - E-commerce/CTV optionality supports long-term TAM - Valuation cheap only if high growth persists - Author remains on sidelines, watching for entry