=== SUMMARY ===
- Author argues Salesforce (CRM) is undervalued at ~$190 despite strong revenue growth, FCF, and buyback program.
- Thesis relies on SEC filings: FY2026 revenue $41.5B, net income $7.46B, FCF $15B, and a simple DCF implying ~$505/share.
- Quality assessment: Fairly well-researched DD with real filings and valuation math, but DCF assumptions are optimistic and the post ignores potential growth deceleration/margin pressures.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
CRM - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.70
Speaker: u/spyapple
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: CRM generated $41.5B revenue, $7.5B net income, $15B OCF, and $6.6B Q1 FCF with a $50B buyback.
2. THE BRIDGE: At ~$190, the stock trades near historical low multiples despite 78% gross margins and strong cash conversion.
3. THE VERDICT: Long CRM for potential re-rating and compounding cash flows; author sees 165%+ upside.
4. RISKS: Slower growth, lower-than-guided revenue, DCF terminal multiple too high, and macro/multiple compression.
Timeframe: long-term
Key Points:
- CRM trades ~190, mcap ~158B
- Annual FCF ~15B, Q1 FCF 6.6B
- Author DCF target ~505/share
- 50B buyback supports downside
- Risk: 10% growth assumption may be aggressive
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▶ Полный текст поста
so i was looking through the latest sec filings for crm salesforce from the 10-k filed in march 2026 and the q1 10-q from may 2026 because the valuation right now is crazy cheap. stock is trading right around 190 dollars with a market cap of about 158 billion and enterprise value around 181 billion.
if you look at the numbers from their 10-k annual report for fiscal 2026 total revenue hit 41.525 billion up 10 percent and net income came in at 7.457 billion with diluted eps at 7.80 dollars. operating cash flow for the year was 15.0 billion. then in their q1 10-q they did 11.13 billion in revenue and quarterly free cash flow reached 6.6 billion. full year revenue guidance is set around 46 billion.
now lets look at the p/e ratio and ebitda. trailing p/e sits right around 20 to 22 which is historical lows for crm considering its 10 year average pe was way over 100. ebitda for trailing twelve months is roughly 12.89 billion which gives an enterprise value to ebitda ratio of about 14x. for a software giant with 78 percent gross margins that is super low.
here is the simple dcf math using actual fcf numbers. taking baseline free cash flow of 15 billion and projecting modest 10 percent annual growth for 5 years brings cash flow to about 24.15 billion by year 5. using an 8 percent discount rate wacc and a reasonable 18x terminal ebitda multiple gives a dcf implied intrinsic value of roughly 505 dollars per share. compared to the current price of 190 dollars it will perform at least 165% profit if invested now.
it could theoretically drop in the short term due to macro noise or market fluctuations but it would be temporary given the massive cash generation and $50b buyback program. anyways the fundamental risk reward ratio here is insane.
CRM generated $41.5B revenue, $7.5B net income, $15B OCF, and $6.6B Q1 FCF with a $50B buyback. At ~$190, the stock trades near historical low multiples despite 78% gross margins and strong cash conversion. Long CRM for potential re-rating and compounding cash flows; author sees 165%+ upside. Slower growth, lower-than-guided revenue, DCF terminal multiple too high, and macro/multiple compression.