SpaceX will plummet on 8/6

=== SUMMARY === - Author predicts SpaceX (SPCX) will plummet on 8/6 due to a massive share unlock: 911.5M shares vs 693M at IPO, a 142% supply increase. - Thesis: institutional holders will finally sell, and retail “regards” cannot absorb the flood, so the event is not priced in. - Quality assessment: Event-focused speculation with valid supply data but weak reasoning and no valuation/fundamental support — more noise than researched DD. === SENTIMENT === BEARISH === TRADE IDEAS === SPCX - SHORT | confidence: 0.60 | sentiment: -0.70 Speaker: u/PresidentAounsSon Thesis: 1. THE FACT: 911.5M shares unlock vs 693M available at IPO — a 142% supply surge. 2. THE BRIDGE: Lockup expiry creates a clear near-term supply/demand imbalance if institutions sell. 3. THE VERDICT: Short SPCX into the 8/6 unlock, expecting downside repricing. 4. RISKS: Event may already be priced in; contrarian retail buying or short squeeze could force a rally. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - 911.5M shares unlock vs 693M float - 142% supply increase overhang on price - Author sees retail as >30% “regarded” - Contrarian comments say expected drop may not happen - Event risk high around 8/6 lockup expiry === COMMENTS SUMMARY === The community is skeptical of the bearish thesis, arguing “everything is priced in” and that the stock may actually rally because everyone expects a drop. Some commenters echo the supply concern and ask who will buy 142% more shares, while others jokingly expect SPCX to head back to $200–$220. Overall, WSB sentiment is contrarian and mildly bullish against the author’s short thesis.