What's the consensus on Micron and the memory sector right now? Full disclosure, I'm holding DRAM at $61 and MU at $780, so I’ve had a solid run, but the recent price action is giving me pause. The fundamental bull thesis still looks intact on the demand side like Alphabet just hiked their 2026 AI capex guidance to around $195B–$205B, and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply is still incredibly tight. Micron is basically betting the farm that this AI demand is a permanent structural shift, pouring billions into those new mega-fabs in NY and Idaho to heavily onshore their production over the next decade.
But despite hyperscalers still spending like crazy, MU, SK Hynix, and the rest of the memory complex have been getting hammered lately. A huge catalyst for this seems to be imported volatility from the Korean market. We recently saw SK Hynix drop 15% locally in its worst day in nearly two decades, which dragged the entire U.S. memory sector down right along with it. Because the KOSPI is so heavily weighted towards Samsung and SK Hynix, any local macro weakness or earnings jitters over in Seoul are immediately infecting MU and U.S. memory ETFs.
This makes me rethink Michael Burry’s massive $MU short. He’s essentially betting that the memory market hasn't fundamentally changed, and that we are just at the euphoric top of a classic cyclical boom. If his thesis plays out, all these aggressive new fab build-outs are just going to lead to a brutal supply glut and capital destruction, exactly like previous cycles. With Korean memory stocks already showing heavy cracks, are we actually starting to see the memory cycle roll over, or is this just a temporary sympathy dip while Google and the hyperscalers keep the AI supercycle alive? Curious how you guys are reading the broader supply and demand dynamics right now.