hey everyone, wanted to talk about bsx becaus the market pull back down to the $43 range recently from its $107+ peak last year makes zero sense when you actually open their filings and look at the real numbers.
if you buy in at these current 2026 levels around $43-$44 a share, im confident this will perform at least 130% profit as it re-rates back toward its true intrinsic valuation above $100 over the next couple years.
lets run through the actual math directly from their FY2025 10-K and Q1 2026 10-Q reports instead of just guessing.
first off on revenue and growth, for full year 2025 BSX pulled in $20.074 billion in net sales, which was up almost 20% reported year-over-year. GAAP net income came in at $2.898 billion ($1.94 per share) while adjusted EPS hit $3.06. moving into Q1 2026, they backed that up with around $5.20 billion in quarterly sales.
when you look at enterprise value and market cap, at $43 per share with roughly 1.5 billion outstanding shares, market cap sits right around $65 billion. after accounting for their net debt load from recent acquisitions like Axonics and Silk Road Medical, enterprise value sits around $62-$65 billion depending on cash quarter-to-quarter.
now looking at EBITDA and valuation ratios, TTM EBITDA is hovering around $5.2-$5.5 billion, meaning BSX is trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of roughly 12x. for a high margin medical device titan growing sales at 15-20% organically, that is insanely low compared to historical medtech multiples. their P/E ratio right now is sitting right around 18.2x TTM GAAP EPS ($2.41 TTM EPS). historically BSX has traded at a 5-year average P/E above 50x, so sitting under 20x is deep value territory.
if you build out a conservative DCF model using real 10-K inputs, assuming a standard 8% discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth of 3%, with revenues growing towards $25-$30B over the next few years and net margins stabilizing around 20-23%, you get a discounted cash flow fair value estimate between $64 on bear cases up to $100+ on base/bull cases. hitting $100 per share from $43 is easily a 130%+ return from here.
theoretically the stock could drop to 30usd per share if there is broader market panic or short term macro selloffs, but it would be completely temporary given their underlying balance sheet strength and clinical demand for their cardiovascular and MedSurg divisions.
regarding dividends, BSX pays $0 in dividends (0% yield). management explicitly chooses not to pay dividends because they reinvest 100% of free cash flow into high-ROIC R&D and bolt-on acquisitions to fuel double digit growth. for a growth compounder in healthcare, thats exactly what you want to see instead of small dividend payouts.
overall the math from the filings shows a massive disconnect between price and fundamentals right now.