Sold all RY and TD

=== SUMMARY === - Author sold RY and TD because his dividend discount models forecast sub-6.5% annual returns, and rotated proceeds into a TSX index ETF. - He previously achieved 3x on RY in 6 years and 2x on TD in 3 years, but now believes banks will underperform the broad Canadian market. - Quality assessment: Speculation – personal model-driven decision without public data or deep scrutiny of the banks’ fundamentals. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === XIU - LONG | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: +0.50 Speaker: u/brossardois Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The author explicitly states he sold RY and TD to buy a TSX index ETF. 2. THE BRIDGE: If the banks’ expected returns fall below 6.5%, a broad Canadian index ETF (which includes other sectors) may offer better risk-adjusted returns. 3. THE VERDICT: Rotation from underperforming dividend stocks into a diversified index represents a bet on the overall Canadian market. 4. RISKS: TSX is heavily weighted in financials and energy; a downturn in those sectors would hurt the ETF. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Author bought TSX index after selling banks - Implies index will outperform banks going forward - TSX diversification reduces single-stock risk - Canadian market concentration in banks/energy RY - AVOID | confidence: 0.70 | sentiment: -0.40 Speaker: u/brossardois Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Author’s DDM projected less than 6.5% annual return for RY, prompting a full sale. 2. THE BRIDGE: If a disciplined value investor with a proven track record sees insufficient future returns, the stock may be overvalued relative to its dividend growth potential. 3. THE VERDICT: Avoid RY until valuation improves to offer a >10% expected return (author’s prior threshold). 4. RISKS: Interest rate cuts could boost bank earnings; author’s model assumptions may be too conservative. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Sold after 3x gain over 6 years - DDM signals sub-6.5% annual return - Historical buy threshold was 10% return - Potentia