After the absolute fiasco that was AVGO, trying to get a sense of where ORCL will land this week to understand how it impacts other stocks (read: MU which I hold and reports 2 weeks later and will have a blowout report but could have short term impacts from ORCL). They’re also the only major AI play reporting though they are $1.2T market cap LESS than AVGO so not going to blow up the entire market like they did.
In general, ORCL plans to spend even more new FY on shitstars (stargate) than originally planned ($80-$100B now planned through next FY) and customers like OpenAI will fund their part through their $100B+ IPO fundraise. Seems like a modestly bullish sign. They managed the financing and customer upfront commits to derisk this more so it doesn’t disappear in 6months with a customer backing out.
ORCL is trading at TTM PE of 38 and projecting revenue growth in the mid 20s next year. Not entirely clear how their margins will scale. This is sort of inline with expectations PE/growth curve wise.
TLDR: seems kind of like a perfectly priced boring earnings and they’re priced appropriately but do we see any kind of blow up that can happen from their earnings? Pop or drop?
Outside factor: do we think 🥭 will have the government take an equity stake in ORCL? My paranoia in hearing that he wanted the govt to have AI stakes was really that he wanted someone in particular to have a government backed stake and didn’t want to say who.