Why I am buying more Broadcom (AVGO)

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=== SUMMARY === - The author is deeply bullish on Broadcom (AVGO), holding 12 shares at $330 avg ($43K position), and plans to double on dips. - Thesis: AI chip revenue guidance of $100B+ for 2027 is a floor; based on confirmed 10 GW shipments at $15B/GW, actual revenue could reach ~$150B, far above market expectations. - Quality assessment: Well-researched DD with specific data from Q1 FY2026 earnings call (customer GW breakdown, CEO commentary), but includes some speculative upside (Apple hardware push). Strong analysis with acknowledged bias. === SENTIMENT === BULLISH === TRADE IDEAS === AVGO - LONG | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: +0.70 Speaker: u/Aggravating_Share761 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Broadcom confirmed it will ship ~10 GW of AI chips in 2027, with major customers (Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google), and CEO said per-GW revenue is “not far off” $20B; conservative $15B/GW implies $150B, beating the $100B+ framework. 2. THE BRIDGE: Market overreacted to a soft software revenue miss and lack of guidance raise – this creates a dip opportunity to accumulate at a discount to intrinsic value based on AI tailwinds. 3. THE VERDICT: Long AVGO as the market underestimates 2027 AI chip revenue, making the current dip a buying opportunity for medium-to-long-term growth. 4. RISKS: Execution risk on ramping 3nm/2nm advanced nodes; customer concentration; competition from NVIDIA/AMD; Apple deal uncertain; broader tech rotation could delay revaluation. Timeframe: medium-term to long-term Key Points: - AI revenue floor $100B+, potential $150B+ by 2027 - 10 GW shipments confirmed from earnings call - Major clients: Google, Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI - Per-GW revenue likely $15B-$20B (conservative) - Apple hardware push as extra catalyst (not base) No other actionable trade ideas in this post.

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Just to preface, I own roughly 12 shares of Broadcom at an average price of $330 (my #1 position in portfolio roughly $43K). I will be doubling my position as the stock dips during wave of rotations into value. As a 20M, this is a substantial investment. I can also admit that my investment in TSMC have stronger thesis because of visibility and positioning, I don't think Broadcom can have the same "quality" of investment. This is for you to consider my potential bias, and I would love to hear your disagreements that could prevent me from painful loss.

Earning Call, I can admit that missing revenue was disappointing, but soft software sales is really not why people invest in Broadcom. I attribute the post-sell off to the reason that they did not raise guidance of AI chip sales for 2027 from the existing $100B+ framework. My personal read is that it develop from earlier this year, we expect $100B to now it guaranteed excess of $100B. 

This is from Q1 FY2026 earning call breakdown, three GWs from Anthropic, one GW from OpenAI, at least 2 GWs from Meta, at least 3 GWs from Google, plus small orders. CEO Hock Tan confirmed that in 2027, Broadcom is shipping roughly 10 GWs. At roughly $20B per GW range that Broadcom CEO say is "not far off", let just be conservative at $15B per GW. It would be roughly $150B almost 50% higher than our baseline of $100B right now. The $100B floor is assuming $10B per GW which is the absolute floor that almost senseless, because newer generation chips that will be developed utilizes 3nm or advanced nodes (&gt;2nm) from TSMC comes with higher revenue per GW not less. 

This is why I can't careless how the market react or rotate, I think the banks and Morningstar raised their price target and fair value based on a thesis that similar to mine. Another bullish catalyst could be Apple under Ternus, as they are likely to make harder hardware push to solve AI through deeper hardware, silicon, and infrastructure upgrades. This is not something I would rely on for the base case, but I would say if there was a deal it would be quite bullish. 

Please let me know how you think, I would love to hear bullish and bearish perspectives.

Идеи

u/Aggravating_Share761 Reddit r/ValueInvesting

Broadcom confirmed it will ship ~10 GW of AI chips in 2027, with major customers (Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google), and CEO said per-GW revenue is “not far off” $20B; conservative $15B/GW implies $150B, beating the $100B+ framework. Market overreacted to a soft software revenue miss and lack of guidance raise – this creates a dip opportunity to accumulate at a discount to intrinsic value based on AI tailwinds. Long AVGO as the market underestimates 2027 AI chip revenue, making the current dip a buying opportunity for medium-to-long-term growth. Execution risk on ramping 3nm/2nm advanced nodes; customer concentration; competition from NVIDIA/AMD; Apple deal uncertain; broader tech rotation could delay revaluation. No other actionable trade ideas in this post.

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Идеи

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