Palo Alto reports fiscal Q3 tonight (June 2) after the close, webcast at 4:30 PM ET. I'm trying to gauge where people think this lands because the setup looks extended as hell and I want to know if I'm missing something.
Options are pricing a big move — I've seen anywhere from \~5.5% to \~11.75% implied depending on the source, with today's reads on the higher end as IV ramps. Call it roughly 8-12%.
Current price \~$293.94, sitting **28% above its 20-day SMA**. RSI-14 is at **84.5** — deep overbought. Stock is basically at its highs, near zero drawdown from the 90-day peak.
Sentiment is heavily bullish going in:
* Options Put/Call ratio \~0.60 (1.7x more calls than puts traded). Everyone's positioned long.
* JP Morgan and Baird both just raised PTs to $300 (from $200 and $265 respectively).
* News flow is all AI/cybersecurity hype — headlines literally calling it "a second ChatGPT-like moment" and "AI making hackers smarter and PANW richer."
But a couple things make me cautious:
* The June 18 expiry P/C flips to \~1.29, so somebody's buying downside protection past the event.
* Multi-day institutional flow looks like distribution into the rally — net notional has been negative over the last several days even as price ripped (one recent session showed a positive buy imbalance but nearly **-$1.9B** net notional).
* Analysts are "Strong Buy" but the average price target (\~$261) sits *below* where it's trading. So the consensus rating and consensus target point in opposite directions.
So crowded bullish positioning + parabolic price + an analyst PT chase right at the level the stock is already trading. Feels like a "priced for perfection" earnings print.
Where are you guys leaning? Beat-and-rip continuation, or sell-the-news fade after a run like this? Anyone have a read on the implied move tonight?
FWIW: I have no skin in this game, it's just the big name tonight and I want to crowd source the sentiment. Or just go against all the fine investors in WSB.
(Numbers above are estimates/pulled from various sources and may not be exact — verify before trading on them.)