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A lot of people aren't ready to hear this, but FIG stock has a lot of room to run and can pick up some unexpected (for some) momentum down the line. I'll try to be brief, but I'm terrible with words - I didn't pay attention in english class.
First, let me address the bears. Each bearish take I read on Figma is **maximum regarded** and it's the same boring regurgitated takes over and over again which somehow all - and lazily - conflate what Figma and any new LLM providers do as a core business. "*AI DISRUPTION RISK, SEAT-BASED MODEL BREAKING, -X% OFF ITS IPO HIGH, ITS GOING TO ZERO, I DO WITH CLAUDE DESIGN WHAT I USED TO IN FIGMA HA HA HA"*. Alright squirt, take a sit while daddy lays it out for you while you don't have a novel thought in your head.
Yes, Figma is down a lot. Yes, anyone with a brain knew there was going to be a boom bust IPO cycle. No, its not because they're failing as a business. If you bought at the highs of the IPO or have gotten shaken out of your shares, feel sorry for you bro - there is still money to be made. The truth is the market has some shares to digest as they've become public this past year.
Alright, now that I've put the bears in their place, let me explain why Figma is going to blow some heads in the coming future. I expect this company to become irrationally valued once this thesis catches on (if it doesn't my wife is going to kill me).
It's important to understand that Figma, with Dylan Field at the helm, has done - at least - two incredibly impressive things:
1. **Built a highly performant multiplayer collaboration web tool**
2. **Built digital design software on top of this stack that was/is leagues ahead of any competitor (then and now) that everyone loves and uses.**
Figma is objectively the gold standard of widespread collaborative digital design software outside of niche areas which competitors like Adobe still dominate in. They are everywhere and if you're in a company producing software, you *probably* use them.
So, let me summarize so far:
* **They are everywhere**
* **They are the undisputed champions of general digital creation on top of a highly performant tech stack**
* **They've been building this great software for a little over a decade**
* **Financials are good. The company has $1.6B on hand, is debt free, is growing 40% YoY, has a strategic investment arm (Figma ventures). There is some stock based compensation being digested, but that will pass. They haven't even entertained "cutting costs" yet (its literally not a priority)**
Now, let me do you the favor - so you don't have to think - of laying out the grand vision of Dylan Field for Figma that is going to 🚀🚀🚀 the company into tendieland.
But before that, a quick note on Dylan Field. If you aren't aware of Dylan, he is nothing short of a generational leader. His vision, tenacity, ambition, etc, to succeed with Figma are what we call ***rare***. To put it bluntly, this guy basically wants to be another Steve Jobs while being a humble nice guy who is incredibly smart. He's by all measures a rare leader and better than you or I will ever be. He's the type of leader you believe in, not doubt. So much so, he believed in himself and dropped out of Brown to start Figma after receiving a grant from Peter Thiel who also believed in him (look how that turned out so far).
Ok, so, Dylan Field good guy, built a great company, where does it go from here? (🚀)
Have you guys heard of LLM's/AI? Like the ones Anthropic (and others) build? The ones where companies scraped the internet of information and code and ran it through some fancy algorithm to give us some nice slop that generally works well when you use your brain a little bit? Not going to make the gardener a brain surgeon, but generally a net positive for access to information - much better than google searching.
Ok, cool, you have. So, you must also be aware that the algorithms that train these things basically summarize its training data (can be any data - public or proprietary) as outputs.
When looking at digital creation and especially software, it's general consensus that these tools will help the software creation process by moving it up an abstraction layer. As a software engineer, instead of laboriously writing all of the code for a software project, things are a lot faster now because you can describe what you want in plain english and get really good momentum quicker. As any software engineer knows by now, it still requires you in the loop for a lot of reasons. After all, they're stochastic algorithms. The worlds banking infrastructure isn't going to be probably guessed to be correct, its going to be verified and held accountable to be correct by someone.
But, at the end of the day, the infra to bring cost downs on training and inference is going up, which should bring costs down, and its really only a matter of time before coding agents become a bit commoditized. Sure SOTA will be there, but local or cheaper models will be good enough - this is basically general consensus at this point. So, over time, its probably not a great business to solely be in if you're a company IMO. As a company, you probably *have to* move to the app-layer over time.
So, coding agents:
* Becoming commoditized
* Are fungible
* You still need humans
* The creation aspect of software has to a large extent moved up an abstraction level - to design rather than strict labor
* Companies creating these things are building their own single player "design tools" to utilize the agents.
Now, let me ask you something. *What company is the best at collaborative digital design software and has* ***a lot of experience*** *in the field?*
A company which:
* Has recently begun integrating source code access into their tool
* Creating their own proprietary design agents with a decade of usage data of the best design tool available
* Can plug in any fungible coding agent
* Can *probably* create a killer coding UI
* Already can bring engineers, designers, PMs, or any stakeholders together digitally easily to work on a software product in a multiplayer environment
* Has a great leader with a vision to execute on this (and not to mention an ***ABSURD*** stock based compensation package based on stock price milestones)
**It's Figma**. The grand vision is for the Figma web/desktop app to be the epicenter of digital creation. They are playing a little catch up now on the coding integration, but once they get there - and they already have begun - they are going to steamroll the competition with experience in collaborative multiplayer digital creation.
Do not bet against Dylan to bring this vision to life, he is seriously autistic and has a bigger package literally and figuratively than you or I.
**In for Figma 54K shares**.
https://preview.redd.it/t154p6j0tg4h1.png?width=1106&format=png&auto=webp&s=5a09172ea4d696a46b450f48d2fbc43ff1487e53
**Short term outlook**: 50-100% gain is feasible by end of summer. It could happen fast though but I wouldn’t bet the house on it. There is currently momentum holding against the recent lockup expiration that just occurred this month. With notable - but not extreme - short interest, a switch to long software again as a general trend, and their yearly Config conference happening end of June, I see strength all into summer generally as they showcase to the market these visions more clearly.
**Medium term outlook**: I’ll reassess short term trends come end of August when the final VC/investor lockup period ends which will bring volatility short term.
**Long term outlook**: My longer term view is recapturing IPO highs and beyond into 2027 if they continue executing these visions.
*Just to get a head of a few questions*:
\- I am not an indian scammer (I will update my position in the week showing my skin color)
\- No I didn't use an LLM to write this
https://preview.redd.it/b35hslcqtg4h1.png?width=290&format=png&auto=webp&s=146fa72a2a52ea65ac25431da00a4203aedfa240