Not here to pump, shill, or hype anything—just wanted to flag this for the crew since FNMA and FMCC just hit Robinhood.Most of you probably know the story, but quick recap for those who don't: Back at the end of the GFC in 2008, Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) went into conservatorship. Treasury stepped in with roughly $191B in support (\~$120B for Fannie, \~$72B for Freddie). In return, they got senior preferred shares and warrants for 79.9% of the common stock.
These two have since paid back over $301B in dividends to Treasury. Activist investors like Bill Ackman have been pushing the idea that the government should clean up the capital structure—essentially treat the preferreds as repaid and keep the warrants as their upside.
The ugly truth (or the opportunity, depending how you look at it): FNMA and FMCC back a massive chunk of the U.S. mortgage market. They guarantee and securitize loans, collect fees on that flow, and have been printing solid net income in recent years (multiple billions per quarter lately).
The big "if": If the overhang from the senior preferreds gets resolved, they recapitalize properly, and these eventually uplist/get real index inclusion... the math some people float is they could be worth way more. Current prices are in the $6-7 range (FMCC around 6s, FNMA around 7s). A modest multiple on normalized earnings with the gov't stake factored in gets thrown around in the $30-50+ zone by bulls, which would put the market caps into serious territory and force big index buying.
If the administration and Treasury actually move forward on reform/exit, this could be a multi-bagger. If they drag it out or TACO on it (take a crap on shareholders again), these stay pinned as illiquid OTC lottery tickets or heavily diluted into oblivion.
TL;DR: Government bailed out and held these two hostage for 18 years. They've more than repaid the cash. If DC does the right thing on recap and release, big potential upside. If not, they're duds. Just making the crew aware now that they're easy to trade on RH. DYOR, position size responsibly, and GLTA