I have been very interested in the eVTOL space recently. The technology is very promising and I can see why the whole sector is getting a lot of attention recently. But, I have some concerns.
Based on current estimates there are 40,000 to 70,000 helicopters in the world and roughly 160,000 propellor planes in the world. Let’s say eVTOLs replace every helicopter and propellor plane in the world. That’s only 230,000 eVTOLs. Now let’s say they sell 4X as many over the next 20 years, cause the technology / functionality is undoubtably better in almost every way. That is still under 1 million eVTOLs.
Now to put this in perspective there are 1.6 billion cars on earth. Sure, an eVTOL will cost a lot more than a car, but will the profit margins be much better? Doubtful.
Now split these million units of eVTOLs amongst the biggest players in the game right now, Joby, archer, vertical, Horizon. You’re left with only a quarter of a million for each company.
HOVR still has a very small market cap compared to the completion, but in my opinion the competitions market caps are outrageously high and the sector will correct before HOVR can reach valuations of 10 billion like JOBY.
You don’t see people getting excited about propeller planes and helicopter stocks. Not sure why there is so much hype for the eVTOL sector.
With all that said, I do have a small position in HOVR and EVTL. But I think the hype around them is completely overblown, and the market for these aircraft will be smaller than people are anticipating. Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves here, folks.
Would love to hear your thoughts and any counter arguments.