Been holding SEA for a while now and down about 24% on my position. Rather than panic selling I've been doubling down on the thesis. Curious what the bears think.
Why I'm holding:
Revenue grew 36% to $23B in 2025, net income up 260% to $1.6B. All three segments profitable simultaneously for the first time. Shopee has \~60% of Southeast Asian e-commerce, a market going from $159B to $350B GMV by 2030. Monee's loan book grew 80% with NPLs stable at 1.1% which honestly impressed me. Garena is printing cash at 54% EBITDA margins from a game people said was dying. İ understand Garena might become less important but İ believe Monee and Shopee will pick up the slack.
Generally, İ am also convinced that Southeast Asia will go through quite some growth, and that SEA might be poised to take a nice position as a local tech stock when the massive population in Southeast Asia will improve economically.
The Q4 selloff that crushed the stock was driven by a tax expense miss, but not really business deterioration as far as İ understand. The actual operations beat expectations across the board.
What concerns me:
TikTok Shop is growing faster than Shopee in percentage terms. Monee's credit expansion is aggressive and could bite in a recession. And the stock has a history of being wildly mispriced in both directions. İ did talk to 2 friends from İndonesia who both prefer Shopee over TikTok Shop, but that's very limited data İ know.
What am I missing?
Happy to be wrong, just want to understand the bear case better before adding more. Excited/scared of earnings may 12th