=== SUMMARY ===
- The post argues that Google (GOOG) is undervalued despite its recent run-up, driven by surging cloud revenue and AI demand from both startups and enterprises.
- The author’s thesis centers on Google’s dominance in cloud infrastructure, TPUs, proprietary models, search, and its strategic partnership with Anthropic, along with private capital flooding into AI compute.
- Quality assessment: Informed opinion with anecdotal evidence from the IT/startup world, but lacks rigorous quantitative DD — sits between speculative and research-backed commentary.
=== SENTIMENT ===
BULLISH
=== TRADE IDEAS ===
GOOG - LONG | confidence: 0.80 | sentiment: +0.70
Speaker: u/JoLagoni
Thesis:
1. THE FACT: Strong cloud growth in recent earnings; Anthropic struggling with capacity due to demand; private capital is pouring into AI startups burning compute.
2. THE BRIDGE: This demand will flow directly to Google Cloud revenue, driving top-line growth and multiple expansion (forward P/E >40, price target $600).
3. THE VERDICT: GOOG is a “safe bet” on the AI wave, with diversified AI assets (Cloud, TPUs, Gemini, Waymo, SpaceX stake) and strong competitive moats.
4. RISKS: AI bubble could deflate if private-market failures accelerate; competition from Microsoft Azure/AWS; regulatory headwinds; capital expenditure overhang.
Timeframe: medium-term
Key Points:
- Cloud revenue accelerating from AI demand
- Anthropic capacity crunch signals robust spending
- Private AI startup compute burn supports thesis
- Forward P/E expansion to 40+ likely
- Price target $600 per share
Оценка17
Комментарии22
% апвоутов87%
▶ Полный текст поста
Just bought in more GOOG, despite the big run up. Thesis goes that recent earnings showed very strong cloud growth which signals AI run is here and is just beginning. Google Cloud is an awesome product for any company - startup or big business. Google owns and excels in all segments - infra, TPUs, proprietary models, search with unlimited access to data (which keeps track very well with ChatGPT with integrated Gemini in results). Partnership with Anthropic is the right bet, coming from IT industry (Claude Code blows away all competitors and models are far superior than any other). Companies and individual IT professionals are shelling real $$$ on subscriptions and can't get enough. Anthropic is really struggling a lot with capacity (many outages recently), demand is ramping up hard and cloud revenue will skyrocket further. Doubt that anyone outside the IT industry has real deep insight in the ecosystem, limitations and demand levels.
This thesis really goes in line with the run up with semis which I believe is far from over as well. But wanted to explore the Alphabets valuation which I see has a lot of upside. It really is the safe bet on the AI hype with all it is going for. Not to mention all the stakes in other businesses (SpaceX, Waymo etc...) which Google has.
Any arguments to the slowing of the growth or AI bubble getting near the end don't really make sense to me, we are still far from it. By being involved in the startup world and venture capital, I see firsthand a lot of private capital being shelled out to young companies in hopes of hitting that 1 out of 100 startups that becomes a unicorn. All those startups are burning millions on compute and tokens currently and it will be years until most of them fail where we might see a crash. This will start in private markets first, and it is to be seen where the imbalance shows up in terms of oversupply of compute and demand from the winners. This is still far future.
I see forward P/E go north of 40 honestly pretty quickly. The run up might continue to $600 a share. Sharing an opinion, looking forward for other opinions on where we see GOOG go.
Strong cloud growth in recent earnings; Anthropic struggling with capacity due to demand; private capital is pouring into AI startups burning compute. This demand will flow directly to Google Cloud revenue, driving top-line growth and multiple expansion (forward P/E >40, price target $600). GOOG is a “safe bet” on the AI wave, with diversified AI assets (Cloud, TPUs, Gemini, Waymo, SpaceX stake) and strong competitive moats. AI bubble could deflate if private-market failures accelerate; competition from Microsoft Azure/AWS; regulatory headwinds; capital expenditure overhang.