I wanted to post my research here to see if there are other bio-med investors who can point out any errors or miscalculations and in general pick apart my thesis to see if it stands up or if I'm lying to myself as this feels a little too good to be true to me.
**DISCLAIMERS:**
\- This is not financial advice
\- Current holdings are 1,350 shares and 500 warrants (DRTSW). Warrant expiration is Jan 2027. Strike price $11.50. DCA’ing every month with additional share purchases.
**Basic Facts:**
Company Name: Alpha Tau Medical (DRTS)
Sector: Bio-med (Oncology)
**What they do:**
Alpha Tau specializes in DaRTs therapy where they take stainless steel “darts” coated in Radium-224 and insert them directly into tumors as an Alpha radiation source.
**Why this is a breakthrough:**
Using DaRTs therapy, a surgeon is able to use an outpatient procedure to place an alpha radiation source directly into tumors which stay in place about a month until the Radium decays at which point the darts are removed via another outpatient procedure. Alpha radiation is extra impactful as it has a high energy output and more thoroughly destroys DNA/cells then Beta or Gamma radiation.
In layman’s terms, the company has figured out a way to burn solid tumors from the inside out allowing for treatment of cancers that are traditionally very difficult to treat due to proximity or attachment to vital organs that limit surgical and traditional radiotherapy options. It's like using a scalpel vs. traditional radiation therapy's chainsaw.
This approach is cancer type agnostic within solid tumor cancers so the applications are going to be wide ranging from head to toe with the first treatments being cSCC (skin cancer) and Pancreatic.
A longer term goal, that they’ve also already treated the first patient with, is GBM (Glioblastoma). It has a high recurrence rate and is, at this time, basically a death sentence with median survival at 12-15 months and 5 year survival at less then 10%. Shifting the survivability even moderately would be a godsend to the 12,000 patients diagnosed annually in the US and even more globally.
Their most recent presentation, including an appendix with additional information can be found here:
[https://investorsummitgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Alpha-Tau-Medical-Presentation.pdf](https://investorsummitgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Alpha-Tau-Medical-Presentation.pdf)
**The numbers:**
This is where it feels too good to be true to me. The company is currently trading in the $7 range, but using a conservative revenue model that only factors in cSCC in the US and pancreatic cancer in the US and Japan the stock price should be higher?
Total expected annual patients for cSCC in US: \~64,000
Total expected annual patients for pancreatic cancer in US+JP: \~100,000
Revenue per treatment: $20K – 125K. This range is established by Wall Street Analysts in slide 70 of linked presentation. This should get narrowed down after Japanese pricing talks have finished to help get a more accurate revenue estimate
Estimated Fully Commercialized Revenue: $3.28B – $20.5B
**When is full commercialization?**
Based on a successful FDA PMA submission in the 2^(nd) half of 2026, their breakthrough designation should shorten the approval time putting first FDA approval in early to mid 2027. This makes their first year of commercialization 2028. Assuming a 6 year ramp in manufacturing and widespread adoption by Oncologists, that puts the $3.28B – $20.5B in revenue at year end 2033.
Using a high discount rate (30%), and factoring for some decent future dilution, that 2033 revenue estimate equals **an expected share price range of $29.09 – $181.83 today**. And this doesn’t even factor in all the other cancer types that it is going to flood into quickly after the first FDA approval.
Is the market misjudging this opportunity? Or am I misjudging the stock? What is the risk that I am not accounting for?