With TSM reporting tomorrow, I’m curious how people here are positioning or thinking about the setup.
ASML just reported and broadly met expectations, but the stock still sold off. That makes me wonder whether the market is currently more sensitive to guidance and forward outlook rather than headline beats.
Given how closely TSM is tied to the broader semiconductor cycle (and to names like ASML, NVDA, etc.), do you think:
\- The ASML reaction is a read-through for TSM?
\- Expectations for TSM are already too high?
\- Or is this just short-term positioning / profit-taking?
Personally trying to figure out whether the risk is skewed to the downside even on a “good” report.
Would appreciate any views, especially around demand outlook (AI vs broader semis) and margins.
Position: No current position in TSM