So here’s my dumb play. In October of 2025, I felt I had enough data to definitively conclude the following:
1) Current US Administration is populated by a combination of fascist-adjacent malignant narcissists and purposefully Peter Principled lickspittles with neither the ability nor the temperament to conduct rational policy on behalf of the country.
2) Said administration would eventually fuck the pooch in material ways that the market could not ignore forever, because actual physical conditions would deteriorate in ways that are qualitatively different than what was possible in the first incarnation of the administration, when there were still a bunch of adults in the room.
3) The market has not priced this level of material deterioration, as it implicitly believes that Trump won’t do anything to risk the long-term valuation of the wider indices, because those levels are directly tied to his ego.
So on 10/31/25, I sold all my positions and have been holding cash, waiting around the for administration to do something epically stupid that will crater all valuations. Wasn’t sure if it would be tariffs, or Venezuela, or Greenland, or something not in the cards at all. But I guess, here we are. So yeah, I’m a longer-term Bear, because I thought the market was underpricing just how dumb this group of assholes could be. I’ll repurchase a more diversified portfolio once there’s a slight bit more clarity on what we’re looking at, but I’ll wait for some of the energy spikes to hit against earnings reports in the coming quarter before I begin to think about a reentry target.