I'm gonna keep it brief as I've lost the care to go into long write ups anymore:
Due to how Tesla functions as a piggybank basically for Musk loyalist, much of its shareholder value comes from the Musk brand. As most of us know, the fundementals for Tesla have basically stopped being grounded to reality for a long while now. Multiple years it has been detached from the actual data. I'm not going to go through it all as this post is intended for those already informed.
This has mostly been due to the fact that Elon has many loyalist. Many investors literally do not even look at the data. They take him at his word and will continue to hold. I've personally discussed this with a few loyalist and they are full on convinced. Nothing will shake some of these shareholders. Whether it be a spin that is put on a quarterly report or a new venture Tesla is after that covers up the dissapointing numbers in the auto sector (taxi, robots etc)
There are also those that invested in tsla because with this reality, many people have realized that their only exposure to private Musk companies is through Tesla. You believe in SpaceX and want some exposure to the empire that encompasses it? Buy Tesla. You like what's happening in Neurolink? Buy Tesla. Sometimes it would even react to rocket launch results. And I would even wager a lot of loyalist invest on this notion alone. Me included. I fully believe and want SpaceX to continue pushing space advancement. It has done more to inspire space exploration to an entire generation than NASA has done in a while (hence them partnering now)
This goes into my next point: How much of this balance will dilute tsla share interest? This is going to be the largest IPO in history. The most recent evaluations are already insane with a target of 1.5 to 2 trillion. This brings estmates (this is really in the air and finding anything definitive is hard) to around 400-1000 per share. So even at its lowest this is already going to start as a pricier stock. This is where things are going to switch up.
This is a big shift. How much of Tesla is held up on the Musk brand loyalty? How many people are (like me) more interested in the rocket frontier for longterm investment? How many are going to consider holding spacex KNOWING its profitability is mainly tied to Starlink systems? KNOWING that rockets and space travel have extremely high costs and is banking on many aspects to go right? How many are going to make the choice of "which entity is representing the goal I believe in the most"?
It's going to be an expensive stock. Anyone that isn't flush with cash to dump are going to make this choice. This is just fact. Yes, there will be some that attempt to hold both but a lot of people are aware now just how memeish tesla moves. I think many will be very pleased to have an option that may have more certainty and a clear goal behind it.
Thoughts?