16 Investment write-ups to look at

AI-резюме

=== SUMMARY === - Compilation of 16 value investing write-ups from Substack - Highlights deep value, sum-of-the-parts, and insider buying - High-quality curation of external fundamental research === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === APO - LONG | confidence: 0.85 | sentiment: +0.80 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Trades at 13x trailing earnings with 22.5% fee growth. 2. THE BRIDGE: Market misprices its two distinct earnings streams. 3. THE VERDICT: Sum-of-the-parts valuation implies 70% upside. 4. RISKS: Insurance spread income could compress. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - 13x trailing earnings - 22.5% fee-related earnings growth - $3.36bn insurance spread income - Mispriced as a single conglomerate - Implies 70% upside PYPL - AVOID | confidence: 0.80 | sentiment: -0.70 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: 8x P/E masks structural decay and negative 2026 guidance. 2. THE BRIDGE: Fragmented platforms and declining take rates hurt growth. 3. THE VERDICT: It is a value trap rather than a value play. 4. RISKS: Successful turnaround or acquisition. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - 8x P/E masks structural decay - Six fragmented platforms - Bloated headcount vs peers - Declining take rates - Negative 2026 guidance FRVIA - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.85 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Hella's standalone value exceeds the entire Forvia group. 2. THE BRIDGE: The market is pricing the rest of the business at zero. 3. THE VERDICT: Extreme sum-of-the-parts mispricing creates upside. 4. RISKS: Post-merger restructuring or deleveraging fails. Timeframe: medium-term Key Points: - Labeled as a TOP PICK - Hella value > Forvia group - Rest of business priced at zero - €1.4bn Interiors divestment - Deleveraging to sub-1.5x on track 5997 - LONG | confidence: 0.90 | sentiment: +0.85 Speaker: u/Away_Definition5829 Thesis: 1. THE FACT: Liquid assets of ¥5.4bn exceed the ¥3.2bn market cap. 2. THE BRIDGE:

Оценка 99

Комментарии 21

% апвоутов 98%

▶ Полный текст поста

Fresh round of company write-ups from Substack this week.

Not my work - sourced from Giles Capital's weekly compilation: [https://gilescapital.substack.com/](https://gilescapital.substack.com/)

# Americas

**Rock &amp; Turner** on [**Berkshire Hathaway**](https://rockandturner.substack.com/p/berkshire-hathaway-and-geothermal) (🇺🇸 BRK.A US - US$1.08tn) $380bn cash pile and three suspended geothermal projects reveal U.S. power constraints are transmission-limited, not generation-limited. Greg Abel restarted buybacks March 4, signaling shares below intrinsic value.

**Rijnberk InvestInsights** on [**MercadoLibre**](https://rijnberkinvestinsights.substack.com/p/mercadolibre-the-market-is-wrong) (🇦🇷 MELI US - US$90bn) 45% revenue growth across 28 consecutive quarters above 30% expansion. Latin America's dominant e-commerce and fintech platform trades at 0.8x PEG despite a deliberate margin investment cycle.

**Alpha Seeker** on [**Apollo Global Management**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/apo-two-earnings-streams-one-mispriced) (🇺🇸 APO US - US$80bn) 13x trailing earnings despite 22.5% fee-related earnings growth and $3.36bn insurance spread income. Market misprices two distinct earnings streams as a single conglomerate, implying 70% upside.

**Value and Opportunity** on [**PayPal**](https://valueandopportunity.substack.com/p/paypal-too-old-for-rock-n-roll-and) (🇺🇸 PYPL US - US$44bn) 8x P/E masks structural decay: six fragmented platforms, twice the headcount of Stripe and Adyen combined, declining take rates, and negative 2026 guidance. Bearish case for a former fintech leader.

**Alpha Seeker** on [**GitLab**](https://alphaseeker84.substack.com/p/gtlb-after-earnings-slower-growth) (🇺🇸 GTLB US - US$4bn) 18x 2026 free cash flow with ARR crossing $1bn and strong enterprise cohorts. Positioning as AI governance layer for software development, betting compliance frameworks grow more valuable as code generation accelerates.

**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Shift4 Payments**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/shift4-was-is-that-bad) (🇺🇸 FOUR US - US$4bn) Forward P/E of 8.5x on 20%+ growth after a 50% drawdown. Founder Jared Isaacman bought $15.6m in stock near 52-week lows, the strongest insider signal in this week's screen.

**Unfair Advantage Capital** on [**Leon's Furniture**](https://unfairadvantagecapital.substack.com/p/this-canadian-mid-cap-has-gone-nowhere) (🇨🇦 LNF TSX - CAD$1.9bn) 14% ROCE, CAD$415m cash, and 40 prime Toronto acres carried at negligible book value. Canada's largest furniture retailer with 69.5% family ownership has declared a REIT spin-off strategic priority.

**Capital Employed** on [**Onfolio Holdings**](https://www.capitalemployed.com/p/interview-128-dom-wells-onfolio-holdings) (🇺🇸 ONFO US - US$3m) $3m nano-cap acquiring digital businesses at 3-4x cash flow. Revenue grew from $2.2m to $11m run rate through seven acquisitions. CEO buying shares; portfolio generates $575k quarterly profit.

# Europe, Middle East &amp; Africa

**P14 Capital** on [**Klarna**](https://p14capital.substack.com/p/long-klar-4q25-er-update) (🇸🇪 KLAR US - US$5bn) Market cap sits below cash and securities, pricing the BNPL business at approximately zero. 118m active consumers, 25% revenue growth, and 0.78 Gini credit score after a 65% decline from IPO.

**Investing With Wes** on [**AutoTrader Group**](https://investingwithwes.substack.com/p/autotrader-group-autol) (🇬🇧 AUTO LN - £4bn) 75% market share, 70% operating margins, and 52% ROE in UK automotive classifieds. Down 39% from May 2025 highs with 100% FCF conversion and 4.6% total shareholder yield from buybacks.

**Best Anchor Stocks** on [**Stevanato Group**](https://www.bestanchorstocks.com/p/more-than-a-glp-1-company) (🇮🇹 STVN US - €4bn) GLP-1 is only 20% of revenue yet growing 50%. High-value syringes reached 49% of Q4 sales with 31% growth. 80%+ family ownership and 9% organic growth guided for 2026 after stock fell 48%.

**DuckPondVR** on [**Forvia**](https://www.duckpondvr.com/p/forvia-revision) (🇫🇷 FRVIA PA - €2bn) TOP PICK Hella's standalone value exceeds the entire Forvia group, pricing the rest of the business at zero. Post-merger restructuring with €1.4bn Interiors divestment and deleveraging to sub-1.5x on track.

**PPInvest** on [**BlueNord**](https://ppinvest007.substack.com/p/the-northern-european-cash-flow-machine) (🇩🇰 BNOR OL - NOK 12bn) 42% total shareholder yield: 29% dividend plus 13% buybacks from a newly rebuilt Danish North Sea gas producer. Lifting costs of $13/boe with 40-50% of production hedged at €35/MWh.

**Nordic Edge** on [**Better Collective**](https://nordicedge.substack.com/p/better-collective-betco-q4-2025-earnings) (🇩🇰 BETCO SS - \~€750m) Earnings update. Record Q4 EBITDA of EUR 36.9m at 39.1% margins despite 9.4% revenue decline. EUR 40m buybacks continue; 20% short interest creates squeeze potential ahead of 2026 sports calendar.

# Asia-Pacific

**Six Sigma Research** on [**Sea Limited**](https://sixsigmaresearch.com/p/sea-limited-earnings-update-a-quick) (🇸🇬 SE US - US$55bn) Earnings update. $22.9bn revenue (up 36%) and $1.6bn net income (up 260%) in FY2025. Flat Shopee 2026 EBITDA guidance triggered 38% selloff despite strong logistics and fintech momentum.

**Mr. Deep Value** on [**Kyoritsu Air Tech**](https://www.mrdeepvalue.com/p/kyoritsu-air-tech-analysis) (🇯🇵 5997 JP - ¥3.2bn) TOP PICK 0.37x book value with ¥5.4bn liquid assets exceeding the ¥3.2bn market cap. Stable HVAC manufacturer with 44% insider ownership, 2.6% dividend yield, and ¥2.96bn in historically costed land.

▶ Полный текст поста

Идеи

Ещё от Reddit — r/ValueInvesting