Why is ASML going up?

=== SUMMARY === - The author is questioning the recent rise in ASML's stock price, especially after the CEO's negative revenue outlook a few months prior caused a selloff. - The author is confused about the drivers of the stock's growth and is considering selling their position, which was entered at $659. - Quality assessment: This is speculation and a request for information, not well-researched due diligence. The author is expressing confusion and seeking clarity from the community. === SENTIMENT === MIXED === TRADE IDEAS === ASML - AVOID | confidence: 0.75 | sentiment: -0.30 Speaker: u/yomamasofathahaha Thesis: 1. THE FACT: The CEO previously issued a negative revenue outlook, yet the stock price has recovered and is now "so high." 2. THE BRIDGE: This disconnect between the CEO's guidance and the stock's performance creates uncertainty and makes it difficult to evaluate the company's growth story, leading the author to consider exiting their position. 3. THE VERDICT: The author is contemplating selling their shares due to confusion about the stock's rally and a lack of conviction in the future growth narrative. 4. RISKS: The negative outlook from the CEO may have been overly conservative or short-term, and the market could be pricing in longer-term positive catalysts that the author is overlooking. Timeframe: short-term Key Points: - CEO's past negative outlook creates confusion. - Author is considering an exit from their position. - Difficulty in understanding the current growth story. - Expresses distrust in management's guidance vs. market action.