Looking at the abysmal performance of the stock I performed a DCF and fiddled with the numbers
I took
Discount rate as 12%
Terminal growth of 2%
FCF margin 15%
The results are shocking,
If Uber's revenue grows 1% for next 10 years it is fairly valued today. ($69.5)
Today UBER takes in from 25-50% of a ride revenue, there's network and data moat to consider. I've also heard a lot of rumours about TSLA or GOOGLE buying out UBER but that seems counter intuitive to these companies' history. Even if UBER fails in their AV breakthrough I see them as ripping the middleman(drivers) out of the equation. Worst case they start buying these FSD cars and with their brand and network they can slowly transition from an asset light to an asset heavy company. The partnership with WAYMO might yield earlier access than individuals and competitors. Either way their buyback and FCF are too juicy to not have a position in.
What do you think?