Some Bonds Are Getting 'Twitchy,' Major Says
Спикеры
Stephen Major
— Глобальный макро-советник, Tradition Dubai
Steven Major discusses why long-end government bond yields are grinding higher, especially in U.S. Treasuries, citing fiscal risk premium, strong equities, Japanese spillovers, supply dynamics and credit concerns. He argues the Treasury should shift issuance away from long-dated debt and sees high-quality corporate bonds competing for capital against government bonds.
- Long-end U.S. Treasury yields are sticky above 5% with forces beyond Fed policy at work.
- Short- and intermediate-maturity Treasury yields are largely explained by policy rate expectations.
- Major says 30-year Treasury bond demand may get twitchy and Treasury should issue less long-dated debt.
- High-quality corporate bonds offer more yield than questioned U.S. sovereign credit.
- International spillovers are pressuring global long-end bonds, with JGBs currently cited.
- Strong equity performance raises the term premium demanded in bonds.
- Fiscal rigor and a U.S. debt plan would be welcomed by markets.
Идеи
Global long-end yields drift higher.
The long end of global sovereign bond curves is under upward pressure from international spillovers: Major points to JGBs currently and notes that a few weeks ago the same dynamic could have been visible in gilts, bunds or Australian government bonds, describing a drip-drip higher in long-end yields.
Long-end Treasury yields stay above 5%.
Long-end U.S. Treasuries beyond five years, especially ten years and out, are being driven by more than policy expectations: fiscal risk premium, strong equity performance, Japanese/international spillovers, supply dynamics and questions about Treasury credit are keeping long yields sticky above 5%, leaving long-dated bonds unattractive and vulnerable to weaker demand.
Corporate bonds beat questioned Treasuries.
High-quality corporate bonds are becoming direct competition for long U.S. Treasuries: a household-name company with very good credit can offer even more yield than Treasuries while Treasury credit is being questioned, so capital is likely to favor corporate bonds and adds to long government bond weakness.
Далее
This Bloomberg Markets video, published August 17, 2026, features Stephen Major discussing Global long-end government bonds, JGBS, TLT, US30Y, Long-dated high-grade corporate bonds. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Stephen Major · Tickers: Global long-end government bonds, JGBS, TLT, US30Y, Long-dated high-grade corporate bonds