How the War in Ukraine Changed Modern Warfare

Rob Turnbull of Bloomberg Intelligence explains how the Ukraine war has changed modern warfare by making the front line a transparent killing zone that reduces maneuver and increases the importance of drones, sensors, software and autonomy. He highlights Europe's rising defense spending but warns that NATO still lacks a clear doctrine for this new form of warfare. For investors, he suggests looking beyond expensive traditional defense primes toward picks-and-shovels defense technology suppliers such as Theon, hardened laptop makers, and emerging private Ukrainian firms. - Ukraine changed the front line into a 30-35km killing zone where movement risks detection. - Autonomy, drones, sensors and software have reduced the value of some traditional battlefield platforms. - Europe is expected to spend about £454 billion on defense this year, up 75% since 2021. - NATO needs a new doctrine for high-tech warfare. - Defense primes have order backlogs but still trade at mid-30s multiples in some cases. - Investor focus is shifting to picks-and-shovels defense tech: optics, thermal, night vision, laptops and drones. - Theon is cited as a Greek/Cypriot optics and night-vision maker that has performed well. - Fire Point is cited as a private Ukrainian cruise missile and drone technology company.