ETH undervalued vs cost basis, risk-reward favorable.
Ethereum's price is trading around 70% of its realized price (average cost basis), near the lower band of its historical oscillator. Historically, such undervaluation relative to cost basis has marked bottoming zones and offered favorable asymmetric risk-reward, with limited downside and upside toward the upper band around $5,000.
ETH/BTC not yet capitulated, monitor undervaluation.
The MVRV ratio of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin has declined from extreme overvaluation to a neutral zone. Historically, a bottom in ETH/BTC has coincided with the ratio reaching extreme undervaluation (green zone). The ratio has not yet reached that level, indicating that ETH likely needs further underperformance versus Bitcoin before a capitulation bottom forms.