Идеи
Long-end yields drift higher without regime.
If the Treasury's increased buyback is not the start of a larger policy regime, longer-dated Treasury yields will likely keep drifting higher. The market is using non-conventional tools to address a fundamental global issuance problem, and there is a real conversation about whether 20- and 30-year auction sizes are too large; elevated real 30-year yields add an important nuance.
Expect Treasury yields to eventually fall.
Treasury buybacks cannot solve the fundamental supply-demand problem. The real issues are an unclear Fed reaction function and hot data. Stephanie Roth expects economic dynamics to change into the future, which should bring relief to Treasury yields; she also says the prior day's move in Treasuries was too big and markets have reversed it, with rates needing other drivers to change to come down.