Bloomberg Surveillance 6/29/2026

Смотреть на YouTube ↗ | 29 июня 2026, 15:28 | 2:24:18 | Bloomberg Markets

Спикеры

Ajay Rajadhyaksha — Глобальный председатель по исследованиям, Barclays

Aditya Bhave — Economist, BofA Securities

Alicia Levine — Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon

Nur Cristiana — Head of Latin America Investment Strategy, JPMorgan Private Bank

Steve Englander — Global Head of G10 FX Research, Standard Chartered

Jim Caron — Директор по инвестициям, управление портфелем, Morgan Stanley Investment Management

Manish Kabra — Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, SocGen

Norman Roule — CSIS

Momei Qu — Управляющий директор, PSP Growth

Michael Darda — Chief Economist and Macro Strategist, Roth Capital

Amanda Lynam — Главный кредитный стратег, Goldman Sachs

Bloomberg Surveillance covers the AI-driven equity rally, with multiple strategists raising S&P 500 targets on broadening earnings. Geopolitical tensions with Iran keep oil in focus, while Fed rate hike expectations divide opinions. Sector calls favor semiconductors, equal-weight indices, and consumer, with warnings on trade deal risks for industrials. - Barclays strategist Ajay Rajadhyaksha sees AI buildout driving earnings, with overshoot a 2028 problem; tech and semis remain buys. - BofA economist Aditya Bhave expects three Fed rate hikes in 2026, leading to higher front-end yields and underweight bonds. - BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine targets S&P 500 at 8000, favors hyperscaler reversion trade and real assets for inflation. - JPMorgan PB's Nur Cristiana warns that USMCA tail risks are underpriced, especially for industrials, auto, and aerospace. - Standard Chartered's Steve Englander maintains a long U.S. dollar call supported by capital flows and productivity. - Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron prefers equities over bonds and credit over duration in a higher nominal growth regime. - SocGen's Manish Kabra raises S&P 500 target to 8000, recommends equal-weight index as earnings broaden to small caps. - Geopolitical oil risks and AI financing concerns are acknowledged but largely fade into the background.

Идеи

Ajay Rajadhyaksha Глобальный председатель по исследованиям, Barclays 4:41

AI buildout extends, semis cheap, long tech.

AI buildout continues to drive earnings; hyperscalers and semiconductor companies generate massive profits; overshoot is a 2028 problem, not now; multiples are low with forward P/E of 6-7 indicating skepticism rather than a valuation bubble—this is an 'earnings bubble.'

Ajay Rajadhyaksha Глобальный председатель по исследованиям, Barclays 9:14

Broadening earnings, long health care industrials.

USMCA review tail risks are asymmetric and underappreciated; industrials, auto, and aerospace sectors are most exposed to trade uncertainty.

Ajay Rajadhyaksha Глобальный председатель по исследованиям, Barclays 9:14

Broadening earnings, long health care industrials.

Earnings growth is broadening beyond tech; health care and industrials show rising earnings and operating leverage, making them attractive.

Aditya Bhave Economist, BofA Securities 40:56

Fed hikes loom, underweight bonds.

Inflation is 60bp higher year-over-year while the policy rate is 75bp lower; the Fed needs to hike to correct this imbalance; expects three rate hikes in 2026.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 53:52

S&P 8000, earnings broadening, buy.

S&P 500 can reach 8000 driven by 23-24% earnings growth this year and 17% next year, while the forward P/E of 21x is not excessive; earnings are broadening across sectors.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 55:18

Buy lagging hyperscalers for reversion.

Hyperscalers (big tech spenders) have lagged hardware sharply and look oversold; management will adapt and the market may revert, creating a buying opportunity.

Alicia Levine Глава инвестиционной стратегии, BNY Mellon 58:56

Own real assets in high inflation.

In a highly inflationary world, infrastructure and real assets are essential for portfolio diversification and inflation protection.

Nur Cristiana Head of Latin America Investment Strategy, JPMorgan Private Bank 84:32

Avoid industrials, auto, aerospace on USMCA.

USMCA review tail risks are asymmetric and underappreciated; industrials, auto, and aerospace sectors are most exposed to trade uncertainty.

Steve Englander Global Head of G10 FX Research, Standard Chartered 94:44

Dollar stays strong, long USD.

U.S. capital flows, productivity growth, and AI advantages will keep the dollar strong even if the Fed holds; dollar positive call since last October.

Jim Caron Директор по инвестициям, управление портфелем, Morgan Stanley Investment Management 103:24

Consumer sector undervalued, buy.

Consumer sector is undervalued; strong jobs and falling energy prices will boost consumer spending and lift the sector.

Jim Caron Директор по инвестициям, управление портфелем, Morgan Stanley Investment Management 104:19

Favor credit, short duration.

Underweight duration, overweight credit: high-quality credit benefits from low defaults and strong cash flows, while duration is risky with sticky inflation and potential rate hikes.

Jim Caron Директор по инвестициям, управление портфелем, Morgan Stanley Investment Management 104:19

Favor credit, short duration.

Underweight duration, overweight credit: high-quality credit benefits from low defaults and strong cash flows, while duration is risky with sticky inflation and potential rate hikes.

Manish Kabra Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, SocGen 142:19

Buy equal-weight S&P, small caps.

Earnings growth is broadening to small caps and industrials; the equal-weight S&P benefits from operational leverage and 'America First' policy; S&P target 8000 with Fed on hold.