ETF Edge, August 17, 2026
Спикеры
Sam Huszczo
— Founder & CIO, SGH Wealth Management
Victor Haghani
— Профессор финансов, Фордемский университет
Sam Huszczo is broadly bullish, pointing to earnings strength, a semiconductor rebound, and factor trades in equal weight and momentum, while urging investors to own longer-duration bonds and avoid yield-chasing products. Victor Haghani is more cautious: he is underweight US equities, overweight non-US equities and fixed income, and warns that the shift from buybacks to heavy equity issuance could create a market reckoning in 2027. The discussion covers AI capex flows, factor diversification, dynamic asset allocation, and risks in high-yield and private credit ETFs.
- Sam sees broad market strength with 10 of 11 sectors beating earnings and semiconductor revenue growth projected at 64%.
- Sam's factor trade pairs equal-weight equity exposure with momentum for uncorrelated alpha.
- Sam warns against yield-chasing ETFs like private credit, high-yield, and option income products.
- Sam prefers target date maturity bond funds and intermediate-to-long duration for downside protection.
- Victor is underweight US equities because long-term expected returns are near Treasury yields.
- Victor overweight non-US equities after 30 years of US outperformance left US valuations roughly double.
- Victor warns about up to a $1.5 trillion swing in corporate equity supply from buybacks to issuance.
- Victor advocates dynamic asset allocation through low-cost index ETFs rather than static passive allocation.
Идеи
US equities strong for 6-18 months
Victor believes long-term expected returns for US equities are low relative to safe assets and close to what investors can get from Treasuries; his ETF is underweight US equities despite low realized volatility because the valuation setup is unattractive, and he is close to reducing equity exposure more significantly if risk rises.
Semiconductors rebound with strong revenue growth
Semiconductor and memory chip names pulled back but are starting to rebound; the sector has 64% forward revenue growth projections versus negative 8% in 1998, suggesting this is not a late-1990s tech bubble and the AI-driven semiconductor bedrock can keep working.
Pair equal-weight with momentum factors
Sam's factor trade is to own equal-weight equity exposure because it captures the flow from hyperscaler capex beyond the concentrated QQQ/S&P, has outperformed the market this year, and carries better risk dynamics; he pairs it with momentum, which is less MAG-7 concentrated and negatively correlated with equal weight, so one side should outperform in emotional market dislocations.
Dynamic asset allocation via ELM ETF
Victor's ELM ETF uses dynamic index investing: it owns low-cost market-cap-weighted broad index ETFs, rebalances allocations weekly based on expected return and risk, and has historically reduced equity exposure in bad markets; he argues this dynamic asset allocation is more protective than static 60/40 allocation.
Avoid yield-chasing private credit and high yield
Retail investors are making a mistake buying ETF products that reach for yield, including private credit bonds, high-yield bonds, and option-strategy products with high distribution rates; these look attractive now but will hurt when safety is needed, and if investors want risk they should simply own stocks.
Own longer duration bond funds
Sam prefers controlling duration through target date maturity bond funds in the intermediate-to-long-term zone; long-term bonds still yield about 5-5.5% and provide price appreciation if recession fears push the Fed to cut rates, whereas short-term bonds lack that downside protection.
Далее
This CNBC video, published August 18, 2026, features Sam Huszczo, Victor Haghani discussing SPY, SMH, MTUM, RSP, ELM, HYG, TLT. 6 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Sam Huszczo, Victor Haghani · Tickers: SPY, SMH, MTUM, RSP, ELM, HYG, TLT