How To Trade The New Warsh Fed | Bob Sheehan
Спикеры
Bob Sheehan
— Founder, Lighthouse Macro
Bob Sheehan discusses the end of the Fed put under Kevin Warsh, ushering less forward guidance and more rate volatility. He outlines two trades: a near-term bear flattener in the yield curve and a longer-term bearish view on long-duration Treasuries driven by fiscal supply pressures. He recommends rotating into defensive equity sectors like healthcare and consumer staples.
- The Fed under Kevin Warsh has retired the 'Fed put', removing the implicit backstop for risk assets.
- Less forward guidance increases rate volatility and makes economic data even more critical for market participants.
- Bob sees two distinct trades: a bear flattener in the near term (short 2-year vs long 10-year Treasury futures).
- Over the longer term, he expects long-end Treasury yields to rise due to supply concerns and the fiscal doom loop.
- He recommends a defensive equity posture, favoring healthcare and consumer staples over long-duration tech names.
- He observes a dislocation of risk with gold and bitcoin selling off simultaneously, breaking historical correlations.
Идеи
Short 2s, long 10s flattening trade
In the near term, the short end of the yield curve is moving higher while the long end is not moving as much, creating a bear flattener trade. This is driven by the immediate market reaction to the new Fed's hawkishness and the removal of forward guidance.
Short 2s, long 10s flattening trade
In the near term, the short end of the yield curve is moving higher while the long end is not moving as much, creating a bear flattener trade. This is driven by the immediate market reaction to the new Fed's hawkishness and the removal of forward guidance.
Short long bonds on fiscal supply
Supply dynamics, term premium, the fiscal doom loop, and reduced foreign buying will push long-end Treasury yields higher over the longer term, making long-duration bonds unattractive.
Buy defensive sectors as Fed put dies
With the Fed put dead and less forward guidance, uncertainty rises, prompting a more defensive equity posture. Healthcare and consumer staples are shorter-duration equities that should benefit in this muddied environment where things are less clear.
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This Forward Guidance video, published June 29, 2026, features Bob Sheehan discussing 10-year Treasury futures, 2-year Treasury futures, TLT, XLV, XLP. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Bob Sheehan · Tickers: 10-year Treasury futures, 2-year Treasury futures, TLT, XLV, XLP