Uber cut out of AV stack, costly fleet shift.
Uber is being cut out of the autonomous vehicle stack by Waymo, is forced to stitch together a patchwork of partnerships, and is abandoning its asset-light model by committing to purchase up to 50,000 Rivian and 35,000 Lucid vehicles, an expensive strategic shift that contributes to its stock dropping over 21% in the past year and leaves it playing catch-up.
Waymo leadership and Alphabet's balance sheet drive upside.
Waymo is the most consequential player in autonomous vehicles, is scaling quickly with a 4,000-vehicle fleet, diversifying with Hyundai Ioniq 5 and lower-cost Chinese chassis, running a national direct-to-consumer ad campaign, and is backed by Alphabet's deep balance sheet, enabling it to subsidize growth and maintain leadership, a value accretive to Alphabet given Waymo's private valuation around $126 billion.