Figure Markets Is Catching NVIDIA and MICRON

Martin, a Milk Road analyst, breaks down Figure Markets' Q2 earnings and argues Wall Street still misunderstands the company. The core case is that Figure is evolving from a specialty HELOC lender into a blockchain-powered marketplace where third-party partners originate the majority of loan volume. Falling take rates are not a problem because adjusted EBITDA is growing faster than revenue, and on-chain July data supports continued over-100% growth. Martin remains bullish and sees a repricing toward $50 from around $30. - Figure started as a tech-enabled HELOC lender using AI and blockchain to cut origination costs roughly 90% and reduce loan times to 5-7 days. - Q2 revenue grew 95% year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA grew 126% year-over-year, showing operating leverage. - Figure Connect partners now originate 65% of consumer loan volume, up from 35%, with partner count rising from 144 to 498. - Martin argues the falling take rate reflects a mix shift to higher-margin third-party volume, not weakness. - Figure's Rule of 40 score is near 150-168, ahead of most S&P 500 companies except Nvidia and Micron. - July on-chain data supports continued over-100% year-over-year growth and management's Q3 guidance. - Martin is holding his Figure position, sees a roughly $50 Wall Street median target from about $30, and may trim if valuation becomes stretched.