Boom de IA avança com Nvidia e resultado histórico
Спикеры
Fernando Ulrich
— Финансовый обозреватель, независимый
Fernando Ulrich analyzes Nvidia's historic quarter and the broader AI boom, comparing current tech earnings growth and valuations to the internet bubble. He argues the AI cycle may last longer than skeptics expect, highlights risks such as circular financing and stretched receivables, and points to Anthropic's upcoming IPO as a key signpost.
- Nvidia added $442 billion in market value in one day after reporting quarterly revenue of $96 billion with 75% gross margin and guiding to nearly $700 billion next fiscal year.
- Tech sector earnings growth projections remain strong, including 55% expected growth for 2026.
- Semiconductor earnings are projected to rise 109% this year and 60% next year.
- S&P 500 and information technology forward P/E multiples are elevated but far below late-1999/2000 extremes.
- Nvidia risks include circular financing and a sharp increase in accounts receivable, causing cash flow divergence.
- Anthropic's expected IPO around late September or early October is viewed as a potential market signal for the AI boom.
Идеи
Explosive Nvidia earnings support stock upside
Nvidia's quarter showed first-time pressure from circular financing, where Nvidia invests in customers that buy its chips, and a sharp increase in accounts receivable of more than $22 billion. This caused operating cash flow to diverge materially from operating income and is a warning sign to monitor even though cash flow remains healthy.
Tech earnings growth supports continued upside
The S&P 500 information technology sector is projected to grow earnings 55% in 2026 and nearly 40% the following year, with margin forecasts around 34%. The sector's forward P/E is about 21x, far below the roughly 40x level seen near the 1999/2000 internet bubble top, suggesting the boom is not yet in late-cycle excess.
S&P 500 earnings growth supports upside
S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow about 33% in 2026, and the index forward P/E is around 19.7x, elevated but not absurd compared with the late-1999 level near 25x. The speaker argues investors can stay long broad US equities while the AI boom persists.
Semiconductor earnings growth remains very strong
Within information technology, semiconductor earnings are projected to grow 109% this year and 60% next year, while semiconductor equipment earnings are projected to grow almost 49% next year. This suggests the semiconductor supply chain is still seeing strong revenue and profit expansion, not only multiple expansion.
Далее
This Fernando Ulrich video, published August 29, 2026, features Fernando Ulrich discussing NVDA, XLK, SPY, SMH. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Fernando Ulrich · Tickers: NVDA, XLK, SPY, SMH